GDP
Bank of Namibia revises growth forecasts
Latest economic outlook warns lower production from the mining sector will have an impact on GDP levels for this year, but growth is expected to pick up in 2017
Bank of England MPC backtracks on planned rate cut
Latest inflation report forecasts larger overshoot of 2% target; there are “limits” to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated, committee says
Eurozone employment-to-GDP-growth ratio has recovered strongly – ECB
Employment growth concentrated in Spain and Germany; productivity remains “stagnant at pre-crisis levels”
‘Absolutely urgent’ for Mexico to strengthen fiscal stance – Sánchez
Bank of Mexico deputy governor stresses need for fiscal revamp to bolster the Mexican economy as monetary policy can only carry so much weight
Book notes: The power of a single number, by Philipp Lepenies
Lepenies offers a brief but very readable treatment of GDP's political history, drawing out some important lessons in the process
Irish central bank warns of ‘negative and material’ impact from Brexit
Quarterly bulletin discusses channels through which UK vote to leave EU will affect Ireland; economy expected to grow by 4.9% this year and 3.7% next
IMF paper examines impact of debt restructurings on growth
Growth usually declines after debt restructurings, but it can boost performance if the country exits a default spell, the authors find
BoE agents see firms aiming for ‘business as usual’ in wake of Brexit
Agents’ post-Brexit review shows housing market resilience while there are reports of some firms look to relocate back to the UK in wake of sterling depreciation; IMF updates forecasts
Yellen says July hike ‘not impossible’ as Fed holds
Fed keeps policy unchanged as widely anticipated; expected path of interest rate hikes becomes more gradual while the long-run level is revised down again
Dombret flags demographic concerns in Tokyo speech
Bundesbank board member draws parallel between Germany and Japan as he notes risks to potential growth rate; stresses need for “growth-enhancing measures”
Oil price falls may have negative effects on global economy, ECB warns
Falling oil prices may negatively affect global GDP growth and could threaten financial stability across emerging markets, ECB bulletin says; demand not supply now main pressure on prices
The growing role of China in an interconnected world
With global economic health ever more reliant on Chinese growth, Wang Yan, deputy director of the IFF Institute, looks at how structural reforms can help China take a leading role in the future
Exports decline ‘worrying’ as Bank of Israel holds
Monetary committee cites "intensifying decline" in exports as it holds the policy rate at 0.1%; inflation dips to –0.9%, as growth figures disappoint
Central bankers may talk too much, economist warns
The public's limited attention span might distort the intended message, publication warns; central bankers might consider talking less and delivering a more succinct message when they do
Rajan’s salary makes him a bargain among G20 governors
Indian governor takes home an unusually small sum each year compared with some other G20 governors, and comes out favourably on other metrics too
Poloz upbeat on US and Canadian productivity prospects
Bank of Canada governor explores evolution of international trade; it may have fallen, but there are still opportunities for productivity growth, Poloz says
Canada holds rate but raises growth forecast in light of fiscal boost
Stephen Poloz highlights “more favourable policy mix” in press conference; central bank notes emergence of “positive forces” in decision
IMF working paper assess fiscal councils
Research considers the efficacy of independent fiscal institutions in “taming the deficit bias” that emerged in the 1970s, as well as assessing their performance more recently
IMF urges action to prevent global economy ‘stalling’ and ease central bank burden
Maurice Obstfeld highlights risk of “widespread secular stagnation” as IMF publishes latest WEO; details fiscal and structural support needed to ease burden on monetary policy
IMF paper examines effect of ‘winning the oil lottery’
Research into the impact of oil discovery in certain municipalities in Brazil shows GDP per capita and urbanisation on the rise
Paper uses machine learning to nowcast GDP in Lebanon
Working paper published by IMF explores use of machine learning technique in assessing economic conditions in Lebanon, where analysis is a ‘distinct challenge’ on account of data lags
External conditions move Bank of Mexico to lower growth forecasts
Central bank cuts growth forecasts for 2016/2017 by half a percentage point; global slowdown starting to have larger impact
Dutch pension funds show signs of herding, paper says
Regulatory price of risk for different asset classes 'should be balanced', warns Dutch working paper, in light of herding behaviour
Christchurch recovering after quake, RBNZ paper finds
Economy proves ‘resilient’ to earthquake as rebuild continues; uncertainty around the timeline puts off businesses from investing in the region