GDP
IMF working paper assess fiscal councils
Research considers the efficacy of independent fiscal institutions in “taming the deficit bias” that emerged in the 1970s, as well as assessing their performance more recently
IMF urges action to prevent global economy ‘stalling’ and ease central bank burden
Maurice Obstfeld highlights risk of “widespread secular stagnation” as IMF publishes latest WEO; details fiscal and structural support needed to ease burden on monetary policy
IMF paper examines effect of ‘winning the oil lottery’
Research into the impact of oil discovery in certain municipalities in Brazil shows GDP per capita and urbanisation on the rise
Paper uses machine learning to nowcast GDP in Lebanon
Working paper published by IMF explores use of machine learning technique in assessing economic conditions in Lebanon, where analysis is a ‘distinct challenge’ on account of data lags
External conditions move Bank of Mexico to lower growth forecasts
Central bank cuts growth forecasts for 2016/2017 by half a percentage point; global slowdown starting to have larger impact
Dutch pension funds show signs of herding, paper says
Regulatory price of risk for different asset classes 'should be balanced', warns Dutch working paper, in light of herding behaviour
Christchurch recovering after quake, RBNZ paper finds
Economy proves ‘resilient’ to earthquake as rebuild continues; uncertainty around the timeline puts off businesses from investing in the region
Research considers impact of fiscal consolidation on debt-to-GDP ratio
Working paper published by ECB finds fiscal consolidation conducted through a revenue increase, rather than a spending cut, is ‘self-defeating austerity’
GDP lag overcome with nowcasting, Sarb paper says
Nowcasting will assist policy-makers understand path of real economic activity, authors say, finding model outperforms others significantly
Observers cast doubt on first Venezuelan inflation figures in a year
Central bank report puts annual inflation at 141% at end of September, after a year without publishing the data; some consider the figure to be too conservative
Kaplan urges careful consideration of volatility
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas president Robert Kaplan warns of the potential for further market volatility as normalisation continues
Better data collection would aid forecasting at Belize central bank, research argues
Forecasting could be improved with better data collection, working paper published by central bank finds
Brazil private growth expectations slide further
Brazilian economy will contract by 3.62% this year with inflation breaching the 10% barrier, private institutions say
Oil prices are key drivers of metal prices, Colombian paper suggests
Research utilising ‘frequency-domain approach’ finds oil prices may be a key drivers of metal prices; consider implications for commodity-rich nations
Poloz sees risks to inflation outlook as ‘roughly balanced’ as Canada holds rates
Canadian governor highlights ‘building’ economic momentum after central bank holds its target for the overnight rate at 0.5%
Turkish paper explores productivity differentials
Countries caught in middle-income trap suffered lower productivity gains than others that had ‘graduated’ from it, finds research focused on period from 1950-2005
Credit growth has had significant impact on EM growth, IMF paper says
IMF paper explores relationship between the level and composition of credit growth and real GDP growth across 31 emerging market economies
Colombia doubles value of largest banknote
Colombian central bank will issue new 100,000 note for the first time alongside five redesigned denominations in 2016
German reforms did not create eurozone imbalances, paper finds
German model illustrates the positive effect of structural labour reforms between 1999 and 2008 on GDP, consumption, investment and employment, but also the eurozone more widely
Ukraine strikes debt restructuring deal with main creditors
Agreement would see creditors accept 20% nominal haircut on $18bn worth of debt; finance minister and IMF head hail agreement and stress need for support among bondholders
Creating an effective equity market in China
Wang Jianxi, chairman of Shenyin and Wanguo Securities, sees the delicate balancing act of supervising the financial markets as key to developing a multi-layered capital market
Coping with risks associated with financial liberalisation in China
Financial reforms in China pose the risk of increased volatility in interest rates, financial fragility and loss of output
Five foundations for the reform of China
Cheng Siwei, chairman of IFF and former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee of the Ninth and Tenth National People’s Congresses, presents five foundations for aiding the country’s overall reform
Innovation gauntlet laid down to facilitate economic transformation
The continuity of China's ‘trial-and-error' social-reform philosophy is key to enabling innovative growth as the country reforms its capital market and develops sound bankruptcy procedures