Bank of Italy paper compares US recession-forecasting methods

united-states-flag-large-jpg

A composite index of macroeconomic uncertainty beats other methods of predicting US recessions at horizons of seven months or under, a working paper published by the Bank of Italy says.

In Forecasting US recessions: the role of economic uncertainty, Valerio Ercolani and Filippo Natoli compare the effectiveness of several different methods of predicting economic downturns.

They apply a probit statistical measurement method to one of the most widely used sets of variables, the yield curve, as

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.

Sorry, our subscription options are not loading right now

Please try again later. Get in touch with our customer services team if this issue persists.

New to Central Banking? View our subscription options

Register for Central Banking

All fields are mandatory unless otherwise highlighted

This address will be used to create your account

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account

.