Expectations
Expectations and term premia both drive spillovers – BIS paper
Different components have greater impacts in advanced and emerging economies, authors find
Emir data can give valuable insights on rate expectations – ECB paper
New methodology uses data on OTC transactions to track market expectations of interest rates
Inflation targets may have to rise, new study finds
Optimal policy would see targets rise by roughly the same amount as the decline in neutral rates, researchers say
RBA sheds light on new ‘Martin’ macro model
Large-scale “macroeconometric” model designed to balance flexibility and theoretical rigour
Communication has to be two-way – ECB’s de Guindos
Communicating with markets influences behaviour, affecting signals received in return, says vice-president; ECB has created new survey of consumer expectations
Overcoming deflation: Japan’s experience and challenges ahead
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda explains how Japan’s long battle against deflation may offer insights for the future conduct of monetary policy at other central banks
The Fed’s trade policy dilemma
FOMC should loosen, but members must speak out more forcefully against tariffs, writes Barry Eichengreen
Higher inflation expectations can cut consumption – research
Authors conduct randomised control trial to test “forward guidance puzzle”
Draghi sounds alarm over eurozone inflation outlook
ECB will look at new methods for boosting inflation as Draghi toughens language
UK households may be too wary on inflation – BoE’s Tenreyro
External MPC member says low financial literacy may affect inflation perceptions
Purists lament as most cheer Lagarde as next ECB chief
Lagarde expected to adopt similar philosophy to Draghi at ECB, making the central bank the ‘only game in town’ – at least for a while
‘Heterogeneous beliefs’ can improve models of inflation – BoE paper
Authors break down inflation expectations in search of additional forward-looking information
Climate change – Where can central banks contribute?
Climate change is becoming increasingly important to central banks thanks to its implications for financial stability. In a forum sponsored by Amundi, Central Banking convened a panel of experts to discuss the latest innovations, regulations and…
Senior Fed officials differ on monetary policy
Bullard says last rate rise “may have overdone it”, but Bostic “not super-concerned”
Senior Fed officials call for overshooting inflation target
Kashkari says Fed acted too early in tightening while Brainard says policy must meet ‘new normal’
Time for resilience
Events that impact markets have made it crucial to build resilient portfolios that are aware of downside risks. BlackRock explores the importance of protection in downturn scenarios for reserve managers.
Finding the right partners with the right solutions
Over the past decade, the financial crisis, globalisation and technological changes have driven uncertainty and brought about drastic changes for central banks. Vermeg‘s Yamen Bousrih explores the importance of having a consolidated, coherent and…
The BoE’s education outreach programme
The Bank of England launched econoME last year to bring a practical understanding of economics to the classroom. Its aim is to make policy-making more effective in the future. It plans to extend its offering to schools by designing materials for younger…
The IFF China Report 2019
Insight and perspectives from the world's leaders, premier policy-makers and financiers
The IFF China Report 2019: Redesigning the international trading and monetary system
Reform of the financial system that brought about the 2007–08 financial crisis has not gone far enough and advanced and emerging market economies must find a more co-operative way forward to ensure globalisation can continue.
The turmoil test for emerging and advanced economies
Greater integration between advanced and emerging market economies during globalisation has made both more susceptible to risk of spillover – financial contagion and volatility. As the US continues to normalise its monetary policy, deputy governor of…
Internationalising renminbi – Hong Kong leads the way
Hong Kong’s advantages in technology, talent and infrastructure make it best placed to form the primary transaction and risk management network for the overseas offshore renminbi market, argues Zhou Chengjun, IFF Academic Committee member and deputy…
An international system for all
Reform of the system that brought about the financial crisis in 2007–08 has not gone far enough, writes Zhu Xian, IFF vice-chairman and vice-president of the New Development Bank. Developing countries are demanding greater influence in global economic…
Book notes: Where economics went wrong, by David Colander and Craig Freedman
Chicago economics’ gladiatorial debating style has cost the discipline dearly, the authors argue