Expectations
Inflation expectations risk continuing downward trend – John Williams
New York Fed president urges policy-makers to hold themselves accountable for below-target inflation
Macroeconomics is not broken
The discipline has moved beyond the neoclassical synthesis. Critics should too
Turkish central bank slashes rates for fourth time straight
Move was larger than many had expected, and comes as inflation re-enters double digits
FOMC calls halt to cutting cycle
Unanimous decision keeps rates on hold; Powell signals no move likely for some time
ECB paper examines low inflation’s impact on Asia
Researchers study impact of downside inflationary shocks on 12 of region’s largest economies
Canada’s Poloz on monetary policy limits, transparency and cyber recovery
Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz speaks about stagflation risks from trade wars, the importance of market signals, Canada’s CBDC plans and why he is not a fan of minutes
The challenges facing Christine Lagarde
The new ECB president will need to focus on a successful review of the ECB’s monetary and communications policy, while encouraging fiscal stimulus and structural reform
Central banks turn to Instagram to reach younger generations
The audiovisual social media network is helping some central banks offer financial education and other campaigns for millennials and Gen Zs
Inside the ECB’s upgraded multi-country model
ECB-Base sets the blueprint for a new semi-structural workhorse model of the eurozone
King calls for radical shake-up to escape ‘low-growth trap’
Central bank models fail to appreciate demand-side secular stagnation; IMF could help to drive country-specific policies to reallocate resources
Tackling ‘dead-end’ monetary policy
A shift to lower inflation targets would help central banks escape forever-loose monetary policy, writes former IMF chief Jacques de Larosière
ECB paper looks at market expectations of Fed policy
“Monetary policy slope” predicts changes in stock markets and professional forecasts – researchers
BSP’s Diokno on forward guidance and cutting reserves
The Central Bank of the Philippines governor speaks to Christopher Jeffery and Alice Shen about fintech, efforts to wean Asia off the US dollar, and why he wants to cut policy and reserve requirement rates
Expectations and term premia both drive spillovers – BIS paper
Different components have greater impacts in advanced and emerging economies, authors find
Emir data can give valuable insights on rate expectations – ECB paper
New methodology uses data on OTC transactions to track market expectations of interest rates
Inflation targets may have to rise, new study finds
Optimal policy would see targets rise by roughly the same amount as the decline in neutral rates, researchers say
RBA sheds light on new ‘Martin’ macro model
Large-scale “macroeconometric” model designed to balance flexibility and theoretical rigour
Communication has to be two-way – ECB’s de Guindos
Communicating with markets influences behaviour, affecting signals received in return, says vice-president; ECB has created new survey of consumer expectations
Overcoming deflation: Japan’s experience and challenges ahead
Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda explains how Japan’s long battle against deflation may offer insights for the future conduct of monetary policy at other central banks
The Fed’s trade policy dilemma
FOMC should loosen, but members must speak out more forcefully against tariffs, writes Barry Eichengreen
Higher inflation expectations can cut consumption – research
Authors conduct randomised control trial to test “forward guidance puzzle”
Draghi sounds alarm over eurozone inflation outlook
ECB will look at new methods for boosting inflation as Draghi toughens language
UK households may be too wary on inflation – BoE’s Tenreyro
External MPC member says low financial literacy may affect inflation perceptions
Purists lament as most cheer Lagarde as next ECB chief
Lagarde expected to adopt similar philosophy to Draghi at ECB, making the central bank the ‘only game in town’ – at least for a while