Is a bond market crisis imminent?
Global bond markets have been rattled by the message from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): increases in the federal funds rate are coming sooner than had been expected at the December meeting. It is not the first time alarm bells have sounded, but so far fears of a bond market crisis have proved unfounded.1
We cannot pretend to know why. The forecasting record of 10-year yields even one year ahead has been poor. So what do we know?
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