Economics
What is happening to US wages?
Economists disagree over causes of real wage stagnation
Book notes: A guide to good money, by Brendan Brown and Robert Pringle
The authors make some good points even if one does not agree with this full-bodied attack on Keynesian economics and inflation targeting
How US demographics complicate the Fed’s job
Ageing population and pandemic legacy are confounding economists’ predictions
Economics Benchmarks 2022 – presentation
Economics specialist Daniel Hinge discusses year-on-year trends, forecasting choices and research
Who will replace Brainard at the Federal Reserve Board?
Another empty chair leaves another difficult choice for Joe Biden
BoT’s Sethaput on inflation dynamics, central bank mandates and multi-lateral payments
Thai governor speaks about higher inflation, sustainable finance challenges, CBDC experiments and payments governance
Biden to name Brainard to White House post this week – reports
Fed vice-chair would become leading economic adviser
Text analysis of news spots Chinese financial risk, says paper
Researchers’ model uses machine learning to assess thousands of newspaper articles
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
Stefan Ingves on leadership, prudential oversight and transparency
Riksbank veteran talks about Basel III, policy lessons and CBDCs
Sarb slows rate rises as South African economy falters
Blackouts may cost up to “two percentage points” of growth this year, central bank says
Argentina and Brazil to begin studying common currency
Minister says countries are taking “first step” in project
Cook suggests US may need to change inflation models
Fed governor believes inflation on path to 2% but tight labour market remains upside risk
Book notes: The illusion of control, by Jon Danielsson
Jon Danielsson’s book makes a compelling case for a serious rethink on financial crises and risk management
2022: The year in review
The invasion of Ukraine left central banks facing yet another exceptional set of challenges this year
Economics Benchmarks 2022 charts
Take a deep dive into the Economics Benchmarks charts, which have just been released for 2022
Economics Benchmarks 2022 – executive summary
Key findings of the 2022 report, including model choices, governance structures and data use
Economics Benchmarks 2022 report – evolving models
Central banks continued to develop their modelling frameworks in 2022
China needs dollar reserves to bolster renminbi – Eichengreen
Authorities must reassure global markets to make renminbi reserve currency, paper argues
ECB paper examines effects of real rates on banks’ fragility
Level of real interest rates determines whether price or scale effects predominates, researchers find
Proportionality in bank regulation: striking the right balance
Careful analysis is required when making any proportionality adjustments in the EU single rule book
Book notes: A monetary and fiscal history of the United States, 1961–2021, by Alan Blinder
An infusion of the history of fiscal policy into a theoretical framework traditionally focused on monetary instruments
Housing plays growing role in transmitting ECB policy, paper finds
Labour earnings still most important means of transmission, researchers say
Armenia’s Galstyan calls for a new framework to tackle uncertainty and nonlinearities
Favours risk-management approach to policy and less emphasis on baseline forecasts that give false assurances