Economics
Book notes: My journeys in economic theory, by Edmund Phelps
Six decades of the Nobel Prize-winner’s thoughts – from micro-foundations of macro theory to the possibilities beyond working, saving and investing
Should the ECB worry about divergent inflation?
Economists say widening readings across eurozone show lingering effect of energy price shock
US CPI inflation rises slightly
Rising shelter prices cause more than 90% of increase, but SF Fed predicts they will fall
Bernanke to lead BoE review of inflation forecasting
Former Federal Reserve chair will work with Bank of England officials
German economy remains stagnant in Q2
Official figures show no growth as outlook for eurozone largest economy’s remains weak
ECB paper analyses carbon pricing schemes
Rising compliance costs can push firms away from green innovation, paper finds
Forward guidance loses power when rates rise, RBI research finds
Tool is useful at lower bound but is much less effective during normal conditions, paper argues
ECB paper models ‘state-dependent’ impact of capital ratios
Model simulates ratio changes’ effects on credit supply in different macro-financial conditions
Researchers use natural language processing to estimate inflation
Applying NLP techniques to earnings calls provides useful economic indicators, paper says
Inflation targeters tend to pay monetary policy staff more
Salaries tend to rise with GDP per capita but less developed economies pay larger multiples
Researchers examine Covid-19’s impact on eurozone lending
Pandemic changed banks’ lending but did not lead to widespread cut in collateral values, paper finds
ECB paper examines green regulation’s productivity impact
Tougher rules seem to hurt productivity, but might raise it over longer horizons, researchers say
Subsidies could cut net zero transition costs, BdF paper finds
Using carbon tax revenues to fund new technologies would almost halve GDP loss, researchers say
ECB paper estimates inflationary effects of climate change
Rising temperatures are having persistent effects on prices, especially for food
Robert Lucas, 1937–2023
Nobel Prize-winner became famous for “revolutionary” work on rational expectations
US household debt passes $17 trillion
Mortgage originations fall to lowest level since 2014
Book notes: The Federal Reserve: a new history, by Robert L Hetzel
This book should become the standard reference for scholars
ECB paper suggests faster methods for estimating eurozone employment
Nowcasting tools outperform models currently used by ECB, researchers say
What economists learned from Covid-19
A rush of work on ‘epi-macro’ yielded breakthroughs and then faded. Will there be lasting benefits?
BoE’s Pill: UK must accept it’s ‘worse off’
Chief economist says declining terms of trade mean purchasing power must fall
Climate change and the role for central banks
Gavin Bingham, Andrew Large and Paul Fisher explain how climate change affects central banks and the competing tensions it raises in relation to policy responses
ECB paper looks at borrower-based macro-pru limits
Households’ resilience and banks’ capital ratios improved by caps on borrowing
Weather affects eurozone inflation, ECB paper finds
Bloc’s four biggest economies respond differently to changes in temperature and variability
Boston Fed expands programme to get people back into work
FedNow created high demand for IT roles, which sparked programme’s inception