Advanced economies
Goodhart and Pradhan on the end of monetary independence
The unanchored central banker authors speak about how ageing populations, soaring healthcare costs and rising fiscal deficits will force central bankers to compromise on inflation targets and bail out indebted governments
Federal Reserve delivers first rate hike since 2023
FOMC expects policy to remain around 4.1% for 2026–27 and inflation to reach 2% by 2029
Zombie firms in Asian EMEs cause disinflation in AEs – study
Spillover is transmitted to advanced economies via trade channels, BIS report says
Policy transmission weaker in poorer countries – paper
Authors say disconnect may reflect limited financial inclusion and prevalence of informal credit
Mervyn King on his career and big ‘mistakes’
The former BoE governor speaks with Christopher Jeffery about the value of transparency, lessons from the GFC, the need to track broad money and tie short-term funding to haircut collateral, and danger presented by non-banks
QE reduces bonds’ safe haven properties – BdF paper
Safety is becoming ‘increasingly fragmented’ across asset classes, researchers say
‘Dark corners’ authors on setting policy under intense uncertainty
Douglas Laxton and Shalva Mkhatrishvili say policy-making should work to avoid the worst outcomes
The next financial crisis may start outside the banks
The warning signs are multiplying and the window for preventive action is narrowing, writes Stijn Claessens
Dollar smiles again, but for how long?
Twitchy investors backed the buck during Iran war, but experts are divided on whether this marks a return of the dollar smile
Book notes: The art of monetary policy, by Kristin Forbes
The message that effective monetary policy-making requires judgement, flexibility and realism alongside technical expertise is both persuasive and highly relevant
Kristin Forbes on ‘wargaming’ for the next crisis
The MIT professor and former BoE MPC member speaks about QE, scenario analysis and the art of conducting monetary policy in the ‘fog of war’
Geopolitical shifts and the evolution of reserve management: adapting to a new reality
How great power rivalry affects central bank portfolios by the Central Bank of Brazil’s Ricardo da Costa Martinelli
Book notes: Everybody loves our dollars, by Oliver Bullough
The author poses serious questions about whether central banks’ activities are helping kleptocrats
Economic security requires alliances, not autarky – panel
Former RBA policy-maker says countries outside US need strong trade links in uncertain times
Emerging economies likely to lag advanced in AI-led growth – study
BIS report highlights divergence in technology’s impact on jobs and countries’ ability to adapt
Models need rethink due to effect of global shocks – paper
Central banks can no longer assume shocks are ‘temporary, linear and symmetric’, authors say
Beige Books show promise at predicting recessions – study
LLM data on Fed reports is more accurate at forecasting downturns than yield spread, authors find
Bessent: Fed heads should come from districts they represent
US Treasury secretary says measure would not be applied retroactively
Alexandre Tombini on LatAm resilience and growth amid uncertainty
The BIS Americas head speaks about the impact of the US tariffs, building resilience amid uncertainty and fostering inclusion through digital payments
ECB and BoJ officials reject explicit forward guidance
Central bankers promote ‘meeting-by-meeting’ approach to rates setting
Venetian lessons for today’s central bankers
Loose money and lost credibility in 17th century city state provide a cautionary tale about the importance of international investor confidence, argues Biagio Bossone