Macroeconomics
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
Eurozone may be close to potential growth – ECB paper
But all estimates of potential GDP should be treated with caution, researchers argue
Agent-based models: a new frontier for macroeconomics?
Agent-based modelling is opening up new possibilities for economics, but the discipline is still struggling to move from the sidelines to the mainstream
Fed vice-chair backs further tightening
Clarida says data likely to support further rate hikes as Mester warns US is “beyond full employment”
Populist policies can wreck economies, Sarb governor warns
South Africa needs economic stability, Kganyago says
Podcast: Arthur Turrell on agent-based modelling
The Bank of England economist says ABMs should complement, not replace, other models
Unconventional policy is best response to financial shocks – ECB paper
Non-standard measures shield borrowers from unwarranted lending rate rises, researchers say
Thailand’s macroeconomic policy at a ‘turning point’ – Santiprabhob
Policy will have to evolve to support the economy rather than stimulate it, governor says
Negative policy rates increases risk-taking by high-deposit banks - ECB paper
Eurozone banks with high deposit levels have changed lending patterns since 2014, say researchers
James Bullard on 2% rates, tariffs and Fed leadership
The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis speaks about the impact of US trade policies, the disruption to the banking industry from Silicon Valley, shrinking the Fed balance sheet and the potential for agent-based modelling
Podcast: David Hendry and John Muellbauer on empirical macro
The econometricians cast a sceptical eye over DSGE models and weigh up some alternatives
BIS paper links Japan’s household debt to consumption behaviour
The researcher examines how Japanese household debt affects marginal propensity to consume
Researcher models business cycle using ‘animal spirits’
San Francisco Fed paper incorporates ‘equity sentiment shock’ into model
RBA paper modifies DGSE to include housing sector
Model does better job of explaining data on Australian economy, researchers say
Paper looks at impact of financial shocks on US labour markets
Negative shocks have far bigger effects than positive ones, researchers find
ECB’s QE has dampened volatility in Eastern Europe – BoI paper
End to ECB asset purchases might increase volatility in EU-6, researchers say
Eurozone governments’ post-crisis fiscal policies were ‘self-defeating’
Policies ended up being contractionary, IMF-organised conference hears
Issuing “foreign-law” debt can cut costs in times of crisis – ECB paper
Eurozone countries’ bonds issued abroad showed major premiums during debt crisis – researchers
Woodford shows finite horizons matter when modelling
Removing rational expectations can change key economic results, says Michael Woodford
QE boosts bond prices above ‘fundamental’ level, Banque de France paper finds
Paper uses experimental techniques to simulate QE’s effects on bond markets
Nominal exchange rates can be forecast on ‘back of a napkin’ - ECB paper
Flexible exchange rates in advanced countries have two regularities, researchers find
Sovereign debt crisis caused European firms to cut wages – DNB paper
Researchers say credit stress causes firms to reduce variable parts of wages
Global factor influences inflation volatility, Italian paper says
Researchers say inflation volatility correlates to oil inflation rates and Chinese producer prices