Macroeconomics
Irish governor calls for better international finance data
Links between holders and issuers of instruments are badly understood, Lane says
Finnish paper rethinks transmission of financial shocks
Researcher’s model uses search and matching approach
Swiss paper shows macro impacts on two safe-haven currencies
Authors surprised to find no significant impact on franc or yen stemming from euro crisis; foreign macroeconomic data has asymmetric impact
Italian banks’ macro cycle “still weak” – Bank of Italy report
Italian central bank publishes latest financial stability report
Commodity prices create ‘strong pressure’ to lower interest rates – paper
Policy response to commodity price fluctuations has been stronger in the US, paper finds; commodity price shocks follow two cycles, with the most recent having impacts on policy rates
ECB researchers add financial sectors to eurozone general equilibrium model
Modifications to general equilibrium model of eurozone allows proper modelling of domestic and cross-country effects of financial shocks, ECB researchers argue
Policy-makers could use fraud patterns as economic indicator – paper
Positive relationship exists between bank fraud and the macroeconomy, Chicago Fed risk specialist finds, suggesting fraud could offer an early warning sign of crisis
BoE toughens 2016 stress tests
GDP growth to hit a trough at -1.9%, unemployment to rise 4.5 percentage points and the level of GDP to fall by 4.3% in latest BoE stress tests; higher capital hurdles also mandated
Jamaica successfully restarts bond market, governor says
Government debt issuance in February was oversubscribed; Wynter hopes surplus liquidity will continue to increase, helping to accommodate ‘crowding-in’ of private investment
BoE’s Brazier values flexibility with bank buffers
Alex Brazier says Bank of England will have a bias towards ‘acting early and gradually’ on capital buffers; will not look for “irrefutable proof” of bad events
Research compares borrower-based macro-pru tools
Debt service-to-income caps generate ‘less pronounced macro feedback’ in the short term than loan-to-value limits, working paper finds
Growing case for planning Cambodian de-dollarisation, paper says
Cambodia needs a strong macroeconomic framework for de-dollarisation to be successful, research says; economic and political stability a good starting place
Mexico to ‘persevere’ in strengthening macroeconomic framework, bank deputy says
Deputy governor says effect of further normalisation in US policy ‘unclear’; Mexico to continue strengthening financial system
Canada looks for new deputy as Côté prepares to stand down
Bank of Canada begins search for deputy governor, stressing importance of experience using macroeconomic models and communicating views
Lithuanian paper explores macroeconomic imbalances
Working paper advocates a more refined analysis of the misalignments in current accounts and real effective exchange rates for the macroeconomic imbalance procedure
BIS paper captures financial shock using five DSGE models
Authors from the Federal Reserve find even models with a common core produce very different estimates of the spillovers of a financial shock to the real economy
BoJ paper details approach to macro stress testing
Tests feature model of feedback loop between economic and financial sectors, in attempt to gauge the ways in which shocks may reverberate through the economy
ECB paper finds the Fed ‘well-served’ by its stress index
Researchers from ECB and Fed examine whether the economy behaves differently during periods of high stress, and the implications this has for policy-makers' models
Bank of Israel cut rates despite 'rapid' increase in house prices
Four out of five members of the Bank of Israel's MPC backed last month's 25 basis point rate cut to 0.75% following weaker performance across range of indicators
Restrictions on capital outflows more effective when supported by strong fundamentals and institutions
IMF working paper finds tightening of restrictions fails to reduce net outflows when macroeconomic fundamentals, good institutions, or comprehensive existing restrictions are lacking
Focus on non-linearity can improve macro estimates, research finds
Czech National Bank working paper argues considering non-linearity can advance probabilistic economic assessments; focuses on relationship between credit markets and the rest of the economy
Mix of micro and macro indicators improves chances of spotting bank distress early on
ECB working paper presents ‘early warning model' using bank and country-level data for predicting individual bank distress in Europe