Research
Uncertainty over monetary policy is ‘recessionary’, researchers say
Forward guidance reduces uncertainty and supports the economy, paper finds
Global output gap matters for inflation – BIS paper
Authors find domestic and global output gaps both important, but effects differ across economies
IMF paper explores interaction of capital controls and macro-pru
Capital controls do not “consistently” mitigate potential increases in cross-border flows
Zombie firms drag down productivity in economy – BIS paper
Lower interest rates create conditions for “zombie firms”, researchers find
Local factors have greater influence on global lenders – BIS paper
Researchers examine data on 53 largest commercial banks
Cash still reigns in euro area
Large number of countries still use cash for high-value payments, but national disparities remain
Bundesbank paper looks at secondary markets’ role in bank runs
Adding secondary markets to model significantly alters possible equilibria, authors say
Uneven technology adoption behind low productivity and wage growth – RBA research
High-productivity firms are reducing prices and increasing profits rather than boosting salaries
Stronger macro-prudential intervention may be needed – Minneapolis Fed paper
Shadow banking sector takes greater risks in times of stringent macro-prudential policy for banks, researcher finds
Female regulators increase stability of the financial system, IMF paper finds
IMF research: including women in the regulatory process has benefits “beyond” equality
BIS paper finds sound economy may not prevent capital outflows
Emerging markets could use pre-emptive macro-prudential policies to safeguard against capital outflows, researchers say
BIS paper defends credit gap measure
Use of Hodrick-Prescott filter is controversial but the gap still outperforms others, authors find
Weak policy co-ordination associated with excess liquidity, paper finds
Trinidad and Tobago authorities can improve policy co-ordination, researchers say
IMF pessimistic over UK’s post-Brexit future
The larger the impediments to trade in the new relationship, the costlier it will be, IMF head says
Market power can explain financial market anomalies – BIS paper
Market power of intermediaries can explain behaviour of risk premiums, authors find
Market power, intangibles and risk premia behind low risk-free rates – paper
Brookings paper questions savings glut and technological slowdown hypotheses
Fed adviser sets out new equilibrium rate model
Long-term interest rates are more important for spending decisions, author claims
Bernanke: household borrowing not the main factor in 2008 crash
Panic in financial markets and not household borrowing created deep crisis, former Fed chair says; economists should emphasise credit when modelling
Technology shocks unbalance job market – paper
A technology shock that permanently raises productivity leads to unemployment, authors say
Competition offsets higher costs and demand in Sweden
Somewhat weak inflation keeps rate-setters from increasing interest rates despite stronger growth
T&T paper gauges exchange rate effects on import-reliant economies
Exchange rate pass-through to inflation is particularly relevant to economies that are heavily reliant on imported goods, authors say
Risk-adjusted model anticipates rate changes better – paper
Monetary policy forecasts perform better when adjusted to risk, authors say
Financial literacy differs greatly between countries – OeNB paper
Some differences are due to survey methods but others may reflect institutional factors, find researchers
US and UK central banks take similar policy stances, researchers find
Richmond Fed examines responses to major monetary policy shocks