Research
ECB paper examines banks’ responses to unconventional policy
Weaker banks’ sheets reduce credit supply in response to conventional policy shocks, paper finds
Advanced economies suffer greater spillovers – BIS research
Study examines extent to which various central banks cause and suffer policy spillovers
Standard notions of time fail to fully explain financial cycles – BIS paper
Distinguishing “calendar time” and “financial cycle time” could help explain booms and busts
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
Mobile phones boost financial inclusivity in Cambodia – paper
Phone users more likely to open financial accounts and invest using microcredit
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
Researchers find trade-off between financial sector development and inequality
Financial sector development negatively impacts inequality, BIS paper says
Information can substitute for collateral, BoE paper finds
Strong lending relationships can insulate a firm during booms and busts
IMF programmes do not harm governments’ financing ability – ECB paper
Governments use IMF as an excuse when “struggling with transparency”, authors argue
ECB paper looks at large database on inflation expectations
Expectations more powerful when lower bound on nominal rates is binding, researchers find
China’s rebalancing on hold as growth falters – IMF paper
Rebalancing is expected to continue in 2019, but income inequality and leverage could prove an issue
Monetary easing can harm growth in some open economies, IMF researchers suggest
Leverage constraints reduce domestic credit in monetary easing cycle, authors say
Immigrants smooth eurozone labour market shocks – Bank of Italy paper
Non-EU immigrants have higher mobility than Europeans moving between countries – researchers
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says
Unconventional policy may reduce bank resilience, BIS paper finds
QE had different effects on “core” and “periphery” eurozone countries, researchers say
NY Fed economist explores election night volatility
Treasuries suffered dramatic moves as Donald Trump was elected in 2016
Fiscal deficits caused persistent pressure for Mexican inflation, paper finds
Central bank independence stabilised inflation, researchers find
BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
US forward guidance had limited effectiveness, Fed paper finds
Households and firms took until 2012 to seriously consider new regime, researchers say
US policy has greater impact on non-US leverage than domestic policy, paper finds
The phenomenon is complex for policy-makers, authors say
US policy tightening heightens chance of crisis for close partners, paper finds
Countries should diversify their global trade exposure, Federal Reserve economists say
BoE paper highlights flaws in bank modelling
Many models still treat banks as “warehouses”, authors say, with important modelling implications
Eurozone wage rigidity largely persisted in great recession – Finnish paper
Frequency of wage changes fell in recession in many countries, researchers find
Bruno and Shin investigate EM firms’ dollar vulnerabilities
BIS paper highlights negative effects of US dollar strength on emerging market firms, as figures show dollar borrowing is still on the rise