Research
Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper
Measures of the financial cycle may be better predictors of recession than standard metrics
Falls in uncertainty may warn of coming crises – Bundesbank paper
Researchers attempt to quantify relationship between rising confidence and early signs of crisis
Italian firms may rely too much on bank credit – research
Bank of Italy paper brings together different data sources to examine firms’ sources of capital
RBA paper looks at responses to liquidity crises
Penalty rates to contain risk-taking are more effective on long-term loans, study finds
Cyber attacks on financial firms rise by 37% – survey
Eighty-eight per cent of participants report domain name system attacks over the last year
ECB paper looks at market expectations of Fed policy
“Monetary policy slope” predicts changes in stock markets and professional forecasts – researchers
ECB paper takes new approach to modelling lower bound
Model uses regime-switching approach to look at returns on short-term bond yields
Japan’s public debt financing strategy may be unsustainable – research
Public sector financing of its own borrowing hit by losses at public companies and volatility
Machine learning can help spot bank distress – BoE paper
Use of confidential data helps catch distress early, and ML can cope with complexity, authors say
Eurozone bail-in regime has not widened bond spreads – ECB paper
Wider financial and economic environment play key role in determining bond spreads – researcher
Bank bailouts increase firms’ default risk – Bundesbank paper
Paper looks at effects on non-financial firms of recent German bank defaults
Some financial market fragmentation helps stability – BIS paper
Different types of market fragmentation have different trade-offs, researcher says
IMF paper tests conventional wisdom on economic and financial cycles
World cycles have not become stronger during globalisation period, researchers find
EMEs can resist spillovers with prudential policy – BoE paper
Some prudential policies work better than others, researchers find
Expectations and term premia both drive spillovers – BIS paper
Different components have greater impacts in advanced and emerging economies, authors find
Researchers use option prices to gauge ZLB risk – San Fran Fed
Chance of rates hitting zero lower bound by the end of next year is 16%, researchers find
ECB’s OMT and banking union rekindled financial integration – research
Subprime mortgage crisis interrupted progressively higher integration from 1995–2007
Fed has a risk management problem – Richmond Fed president
“The economy is giving us conflicting signals,” Tom Barkin says
Finnish paper looks at Chinese currency swap agreements
Bilateral swap agreements increase settlement of trade transactions in renminbi – researchers
Floating exchange rates cut inflation in Caribbean – IMF paper
Survey finds greater financial openness in Caribbean countries is associated with lower inflation
BIS authors detail new data on non-bank exposures
Banks have highly concentrated exposures to non-financial counterparties, researchers say
Banque de France research takes fresh look at eurozone interbank markets
Secured interbank markets not bounded by ECB’s deposit facility rate, results show
Mortgage caps can be higher for insured borrowers – DNB paper
Loan-level data from Netherlands shows insurance cuts risk of non-performance, say researchers
Asymmetric inflation targets improve welfare – Chicago Fed paper
Fed can remove deflationary bias by adopting asymmetric target, model suggests