US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns

US index

The US growth trend could continue to decline for the next 10 years if there is no persistent increase in total factor productivity (TFP), researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco estimate.

Andrew Foerster and co-authors estimate trends in TFP and working-age population growth across major US production sectors to explore the impact each sector has had on the long-term decline in US growth since the 1950s – a drop from 4% to 1.7%.

Using a process of “capital accumulation”

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact [email protected] or view our subscription options here:

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact [email protected] to find out more.

To continue reading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here: