Research
BoE paper: mining newspaper text can boost forecasts
Authors design “powerful new method” of incorporating text information into macroeconomic forecasts
Economists challenge standard notion of labour market recovery
Paper on post-crisis recoveries questions demand shortfall narrative
BoE paper lays foundation for ‘system-wide stress test’
Economists develop framework linking banks, investment funds and hedge funds
Bank of Italy paper analyses Fed’s ‘gradualist’ policy
Monetary policy had stronger effects when markets thought Fed was “acting gradually” – researchers
US firms may need big investment cuts - Chicago Fed paper
Cutting investment may be public corporations’ most attractive response to pandemic - researchers
Eurozone saw limited price convergence from 2001–11 – Bank of Spain
Researchers say this limited long-term alignment should be added to central bank policy framework
RBI economists hunt for suitable core inflation measure
Study examines 11 candidates for a less volatile inflation measure that is easy to communicate
Banks are ‘inherently unstable’, BIS paper finds
Researchers study the many roles banks play and find all of them tend towards instability
Pandemic debt will test policy-makers – Richmond Fed research
Authorities may opt for “financial repression” policies with central banks keeping rates low – paper
German banks’ capital levels affect loan supply – Bundesbank paper
Authors find balance sheet data shows loan supply has positive elasticity to capital levels
Covid-19 may accelerate US firms’ turn away from China – New York Fed
Import data shows firms have used non-Chinese suppliers to replace some lost trade
US MMFs transmitted Covid-19 stress to banks – BIS research
Banks outside the “epicentre” of the dollar squeeze still felt the effects, researchers say
BIS paper: twin financial cycles can ‘turbocharge’ crashes
Policy-makers should differentiate between domestic and global cycles, authors say
US lockdown policy ‘too restrictive’ – Minneapolis Fed paper
Researchers model optimal lockdown policy for lowest aggregate welfare cost to society
Bank of Italy paper examines expectations’ effects on spending
Researchers find inflation levels affect strength of income and intertemporal substitution effects
Lower refinancing can dampen economic recovery – Fed research
US mortgage refinancing activity remained muted after falling during 2008 crisis, researchers find
Covid-19 could cut eurozone GDP by 5%, 8% or 12% in 2020 – ECB
ECB publishes alternative scenarios for the uncertain economic outlook created by the pandemic
BoE paper argues for heterogeneous agent modelling
Authors use heterogeneous agent model to study fiscal policy and redistribution
Tighter supervision improves bank performance – NY Fed paper
Researchers examine performance of heavily and lightly regulated banks from 1991 to 2014
Individual German banks at risk from interbank shocks, paper finds
Bundesbank paper presents simulation method for analysing interbank markets
Fed’s Jackson Hole conference hit by temporary venue closure
Kansas City Fed is considering implications and will release details when available
BdF paper looks at household vulnerability
High levels of household debt magnify negative shocks and weaken positive ones, researchers find
US default rates could hit 8.1% without policy action – Richmond Fed
Loan forbearance policies could see this drop to “essentially zero” in 2021, researchers say
BIS paper flags ‘barren patches’ in post-crisis reforms
Reforms have boosted “shock-absorbing capacity” but some problems persist, authors say