Research
Growth has replaced slack in Phillips curve relationship – Cleveland Fed paper
Findings could have “substantial disinflationary” implications during current recession, researchers say
US forward guidance is contractionary for Canada – BIS paper
Model highlights “beggar-thy-neighbour” effect of Fed’s forward guidance
Central banks should disclose ethnic pay gaps – BoE research
Diversity pay gap disclosures could result in behavioural change similar to climate risk disclosures, authors argue
EMEs should lower rates when faced with capital outflows – Fed research
Not cutting rates could worsen GDP and accelerate outflows, researchers find
Researchers test forward-looking uncertainty measures
BoE paper says the measures are likely to be useful for policy-making in the face of sudden shocks
US unemployment stats understate problem – research
Peterson Institute research says BLS figures fail to include all workers affected by pandemic
Dividends should be subject to macro-pru limits – ECB paper
Measure would reduce volatility in loan supply and equity levels, economist argues
Non-banks exposed to riskiest CLO tranches – Fed research
Risky holdings appear to be larger than market participants believe, economists say
Better communication boosted monetary policy effectiveness in Indonesia
More concise press releases and issuing maturities beyond one month would further improve it, says IMF study
Libra could cause central banks to lose control over monetary policy
Stablecoins linked to global reserve currencies could pose problems for monetary policy – research
Financial shocks explain ‘large share’ of US business cycle – BoE paper
New identification method helps avoid pitfalls encountered by earlier research, author says
Contactless cards change young people’s payment habits - OeNB paper
Researchers use data on randomly selected 21,000 banking customers in Switzerland
Research looks at possible East Asian trade deals
US and China stand to be worst off if trade war continues, Peterson Institute researchers find
Foreign exchange based macro-pru policies cut capital inflows – DNB paper
Data from 83 countries shows formal capital controls do not effectively reduce inflows – researchers
ZLB reduces effectiveness of bank capital ratios – ECB paper
Capital ratios become less effective in reducing risky behaviour when rates are near zero – researcher
Recession causes inequality ‘double whammy’ – research
Paper links loss of hours worked to inequality, with recessions causing a negative ratchet effect
Fed policy is too tight given FOMC projections – former Fed economist
“An outlook that bad for that long is a clear sign that policy is too tight,” Joseph Gagnon says
Researchers say hitting lower bound has little impact on expectations
Persistent deviation from inflation target can still undermine long-term expectations, authors say
Raising inflation targets may lower neutral rate – Boston Fed paper
A higher target might therefore be less effective than current research suggests, research says
Balance sheets could grow by 23% of GDP in largest advanced economies – BIS
Economists forecast balance sheets will remain large for the foreseeable future
Bank of Spain paper presents ‘global weakness index’
System uses non-linear factor models to spot recessions in real time, researchers say
Macro-pru policies can worsen fiscal crises – Bundesbank paper
Macro-prudential authorities must be aware of their “fiscal footprint”, researcher argues
BoE paper: narratives can help overcome ‘radical uncertainty’
Speaking directly to the public can improve analysis and communication of policy, authors find
Bundesbank paper looks at effective lower bound
Modellers can use survey information to reduce impact of ELB on yield decompositions, author says