BIS paper seeks to overcome flawed Chinese growth statistics

Authors use regional data to circumvent “flat” GDP time series


Research published by the Bank for International Settlements outlines a method of estimating GDP growth in China that avoids questionable official statistics.

Authors Eeva Kerola and Benoît Mojon describe the time-series data on China’s GDP as “frustrating” because it is so “flat”. From 2012, the point when the Chinese authorities unveiled a 6% growth target, until 2019, the headline statistic barely moved from 6%, offering “little hope of any attempt of econometric analysis”.

Instead, the

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