Research
Libra could cause central banks to lose control over monetary policy
Stablecoins linked to global reserve currencies could pose problems for monetary policy – research
Financial shocks explain ‘large share’ of US business cycle – BoE paper
New identification method helps avoid pitfalls encountered by earlier research, author says
Contactless cards change young people’s payment habits - OeNB paper
Researchers use data on randomly selected 21,000 banking customers in Switzerland
Research looks at possible East Asian trade deals
US and China stand to be worst off if trade war continues, Peterson Institute researchers find
Foreign exchange based macro-pru policies cut capital inflows – DNB paper
Data from 83 countries shows formal capital controls do not effectively reduce inflows – researchers
ZLB reduces effectiveness of bank capital ratios – ECB paper
Capital ratios become less effective in reducing risky behaviour when rates are near zero – researcher
Recession causes inequality ‘double whammy’ – research
Paper links loss of hours worked to inequality, with recessions causing a negative ratchet effect
Fed policy is too tight given FOMC projections – former Fed economist
“An outlook that bad for that long is a clear sign that policy is too tight,” Joseph Gagnon says
Researchers say hitting lower bound has little impact on expectations
Persistent deviation from inflation target can still undermine long-term expectations, authors say
Raising inflation targets may lower neutral rate – Boston Fed paper
A higher target might therefore be less effective than current research suggests, research says
Balance sheets could grow by 23% of GDP in largest advanced economies – BIS
Economists forecast balance sheets will remain large for the foreseeable future
Bank of Spain paper presents ‘global weakness index’
System uses non-linear factor models to spot recessions in real time, researchers say
Macro-pru policies can worsen fiscal crises – Bundesbank paper
Macro-prudential authorities must be aware of their “fiscal footprint”, researcher argues
BoE paper: narratives can help overcome ‘radical uncertainty’
Speaking directly to the public can improve analysis and communication of policy, authors find
Bundesbank paper looks at effective lower bound
Modellers can use survey information to reduce impact of ELB on yield decompositions, author says
Capital controls less effective at curbing flows than macro-pru – BIS paper
Capital controls do not have significant impact on volume or composition of flows, authors find
Phillips curve flatter when inflation is low – researchers
Downward wage and price rigidities cause non-linearity in Phillips curve, says Peterson Institute paper
DNB paper says eurozone investment-saving curve flatter in recent years
Persistently low interest rates in eurozone appear to have weakened monetary policy – researchers
BoE paper explores global financial cycles since 1880
Cycles in credit and housing have become more pronounced, but only for some economies
Riksbank launches new financial vulnerability metric
“Systemic risk indicator” is designed to track overall financial stability across market segments
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
US consumers expect more fiscal support – New York Fed survey
Consumers assigned a 40% chance of more federal welfare benefits in next 12 months
BoE paper: mining newspaper text can boost forecasts
Authors design “powerful new method” of incorporating text information into macroeconomic forecasts
Economists challenge standard notion of labour market recovery
Paper on post-crisis recoveries questions demand shortfall narrative