Research
National statistical agencies must measure informal economy – IMF
Fund outlines new framework for informal economy consistent with GDP methodology
House price distortions slow European growth – Estonian paper
Misaligned prices amplify business cycles in short run but damage growth over long run – researchers
Monetary unions might benefit from taxing external debt – DNB paper
Policy would reduce adverse effects of shocks to risk premia on sovereign debt, researchers find
More capital could increase lending during pandemic – paper
Philadelphia Fed research finds capital injections and lower requirements would both increase lending
Penalty fears drove US funds’ March run – NY Fed paper
Research finds “sophisticated” investors respond to asset signals but retail investors do not
RBI paper tracks impact of rising transparency on expectations
Research uses text mining to study changing degree of transparency at the RBI
Cross-border spillovers play key role in ECB’s bond purchases – DNB paper
Cross-border effects play a “dominant role” in PSPP’s effectiveness, say researchers
Bundesbank paper estimates effects of Fed’s QE policies
Purchases of private securities were most expansionary measure, researchers find
Raising equity is best for bank recapitalisation – BIS paper
New capital is preferable to asset sales, which can cause systemic problems, authors say
BoE paper explores macroeconomic impact of macro-pru
Authors build DSGE model featuring “detailed banking sector” and sticky interest rates
DNB paper looks at announcements of LTV ratios
Effectiveness of macro-prudential measure is considerably affected by design, researchers say
Talking to firms aids central banks at ‘turning points’ – BoC paper
Qualitative information is particularly useful when timely official data is lacking, authors say
Bank profitability affects impact of regulation – BIS paper
Rules for global banks only cut systemic risk among less profitable firms, authors find
Money market estimates vary significantly – Bundesbank paper
Policy-makers should be aware of widely differing research results
Sectoral shocks drive non-bank credit cycles – BIS paper
Authors explore interaction of bank and non-bank credit cycles
Debt-service ratio limits have greatest welfare benefit – BoE research
Authors find macro-prudential tools can also boost the transmission of monetary policy
Bank of Italy paper looks at economic impact of disasters
More frequent disasters make economic effects larger and non-linear, researcher finds
Early non-employment ‘scars’ workers – Bank of Italy paper
Effect is particularly severe for non-graduates and when conditions are good, research finds
BIS research tracks changing consumption patterns
Pandemic has led to “catching-up” process in e-commerce, bulletin article says
BdF paper looks at French law on climate disclosures
Law led to sharp cut in French firms’ holdings of fossil fuel-related instruments, research finds
Bank of Lithuania paper explores spillovers of US policy uncertainty
Authors find “significant recessionary and deflationary effect” and synchronous response worldwide
Higher economic uncertainty is harbinger of civil conflict – Bank of Spain research
Spain suffered rising levels of economic uncertainty leading up to 1936–39 civil war
Terms of trade shocks not symmetric – BoE paper
Developing countries particularly vulnerable to export shocks, study finds
Paper presents forecasting method for bank losses
Bank of Finland paper attempts to forecast both “expected” and “unexpected” banking losses