Research
Capital controls less effective at curbing flows than macro-pru – BIS paper
Capital controls do not have significant impact on volume or composition of flows, authors find
Phillips curve flatter when inflation is low – researchers
Downward wage and price rigidities cause non-linearity in Phillips curve, says Peterson Institute paper
DNB paper says eurozone investment-saving curve flatter in recent years
Persistently low interest rates in eurozone appear to have weakened monetary policy – researchers
BoE paper explores global financial cycles since 1880
Cycles in credit and housing have become more pronounced, but only for some economies
Riksbank launches new financial vulnerability metric
“Systemic risk indicator” is designed to track overall financial stability across market segments
Record hiring needed to reach pre-crisis unemployment by end-2021 – paper
Hiring four times faster than most robust pace in Great Recession still not enough, researchers find
US consumers expect more fiscal support – New York Fed survey
Consumers assigned a 40% chance of more federal welfare benefits in next 12 months
BoE paper: mining newspaper text can boost forecasts
Authors design “powerful new method” of incorporating text information into macroeconomic forecasts
Economists challenge standard notion of labour market recovery
Paper on post-crisis recoveries questions demand shortfall narrative
BoE paper lays foundation for ‘system-wide stress test’
Economists develop framework linking banks, investment funds and hedge funds
Bank of Italy paper analyses Fed’s ‘gradualist’ policy
Monetary policy had stronger effects when markets thought Fed was “acting gradually” – researchers
US firms may need big investment cuts - Chicago Fed paper
Cutting investment may be public corporations’ most attractive response to pandemic - researchers
Eurozone saw limited price convergence from 2001–11 – Bank of Spain
Researchers say this limited long-term alignment should be added to central bank policy framework
RBI economists hunt for suitable core inflation measure
Study examines 11 candidates for a less volatile inflation measure that is easy to communicate
Banks are ‘inherently unstable’, BIS paper finds
Researchers study the many roles banks play and find all of them tend towards instability
Pandemic debt will test policy-makers – Richmond Fed research
Authorities may opt for “financial repression” policies with central banks keeping rates low – paper
German banks’ capital levels affect loan supply – Bundesbank paper
Authors find balance sheet data shows loan supply has positive elasticity to capital levels
Covid-19 may accelerate US firms’ turn away from China – New York Fed
Import data shows firms have used non-Chinese suppliers to replace some lost trade
US MMFs transmitted Covid-19 stress to banks – BIS research
Banks outside the “epicentre” of the dollar squeeze still felt the effects, researchers say
BIS paper: twin financial cycles can ‘turbocharge’ crashes
Policy-makers should differentiate between domestic and global cycles, authors say
US lockdown policy ‘too restrictive’ – Minneapolis Fed paper
Researchers model optimal lockdown policy for lowest aggregate welfare cost to society
Bank of Italy paper examines expectations’ effects on spending
Researchers find inflation levels affect strength of income and intertemporal substitution effects
Lower refinancing can dampen economic recovery – Fed research
US mortgage refinancing activity remained muted after falling during 2008 crisis, researchers find
Covid-19 could cut eurozone GDP by 5%, 8% or 12% in 2020 – ECB
ECB publishes alternative scenarios for the uncertain economic outlook created by the pandemic