Frequent recessions push up US unemployment rate – paper


A paper published by the Cleveland Fed shows that frequent recessions tend to push up the underlying unemployment rate.

Recessions and the trend in the US employment rate by Kurt Lunsford uses NBER data to measure unemployment rates against recession frequency.

Lunsford notes that unemployment tends to rise sharply in a recession, but decline more gradually in an expansion. “Hence, frequent recessions can cause the unemployment rate to trend up over time.”

Analysing figures from 1948 to 2020

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