Falling immigration weighing on US GDP – Dallas Fed study
Growth in 2025 likely to be around one percentage point lower than was forecast in 2024, say authors
Declining immigration in the US is weighing on the country’s economic growth, according to a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The research, published on July 8, estimates that GDP growth in 2025 will be 0.75–1.00 percentage points lower than the level forecast in November 2024. Other scenarios they modelled showed higher and lower weights against growth, depending on the path of immigration and deportation policy.
The authors – Pia Orrenius, Grace Ozor, Madeline Zavodny and Xiaoqing
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