Research
BoE paper extracts inflation expectations from market rates
Market rates are an imperfect measure of expected future inflation, say economists, who break them down into constituent parts, stripping out risk premia and the ‘wedge’ between RPI and CPI
Botswana research weighs impact of various instruments on credit
While interest rates may be more effective at influencing credit than reserve requirements, more ‘direct’ macro-prudential measures could be even better, Botswana article finds
Global indicators can boost inflation forecasts in short term, paper finds
Author uses global inflation indicators and Brent oil price to augment domestic inflation forecasts in 523 countries, finding both improve accuracy
Lithuanian paper explores macroeconomic imbalances
Working paper advocates a more refined analysis of the misalignments in current accounts and real effective exchange rates for the macroeconomic imbalance procedure
BoE’s FPC says no immediate action required on buy-to-let
Bank of England financial policy committee is ‘alert’ to impact of buy-to-let loans on the housing market and overall financial volatility but finds no ‘immediate’ case for action
ECB paper considers how to mitigate US spillovers
Global economies could mitigate their vulnerability to US monetary policy decisions through a range of different policy actions, research finds.
IMF paper offers recipe for ‘de-dollarisation’
High levels of dollarisation in central Asia are contributing to macroeconomic instability, paper says; authors offer various options that could help reduce reliance on dollars
Competition can boost macro-financial stability, research finds
A survey of 54 European banks shows increased competition increases the fragility of individual banks but decreases systemic risk, working paper says
Belgian paper explores link between monetary policy and risk-taking
Model suggests central banks should stabilise the path of the real interest rate more when there is a ‘risk-taking channel’ of monetary policy, to help reduce ‘welfare detrimental fluctuations’
ECB paper traces roots of falling financial integration
Policy interventions beyond traditional capital controls may have ‘unintended’ impact on financial integration, including some macro-prudential measures based around currency
Riksbank paper takes stock of macro-prudential landscape
A survey of the empirical literature on macro-prudential policy says various tools work best in different contexts; more research is needed on combining macro-prudential and monetary policy
SMEs possibly worst hit by fragmentation of monetary policy transmission, ECB paper finds
Small and medium enterprises may have suffered most from fragmentation in monetary policy transmission following the financial crisis, according to research
Buy-to-let investors take houses off the market quicker and spend less
BoE working paper examines BTL in the UK between 2009 and 2014, finding properties spend five days less on the market and usually sell at a discount
Research draws on lessons from Polish prudential policy
The implementation of loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI) ratios successfully manages credit risk, but the housing loan portfolio remains a concern
Education is key for Malawi’s financial institutions
Increasing focus placed upon financial literacy and consumer protection in Malawi’s financial institutions throughout 2014
Network theory allows systemic risk assessment of banks, paper argues
Analysing the network structure of the financial sector can help assess the systemic risk presented by individual European banks, and offers useful data for regulators, an ECB working paper says
Consistent implementation key to Basel III success, research notes
Boston Fed policy perspective highlights importance of consistent implementation of liquidity regulation across G20 jurisdictions
IMF staff identify ‘priority areas’ for SSA reform
Staff members in the IMF African department chart the progress of financial development in sub-Saharan Africa, the challenges that remain and how they might be addressed
BoE paper explores impact of dark trading on primary exchange
Bank of England paper argues dark trading did not lead to worse market quality on the primary exchange for members of the FTSE 100 index between September and December 2012
ECB bulletin: risks to taxpayer funds gradually diminishing
An article in the European Central Bank's latest bulletin weighs the fiscal impact of financial sector support during the crisis, highlighting the benefits of a move towards banking union
National Bank of Denmark confident it possesses ‘necessary tools’ to defend currency
The ministry of finance will resume issuing government bonds in October after measures to stabilise the krone have ‘desired effect’
German paper explores risks of sub-custodian chains
The structures to safeguard financial assets are opaque and possibly risky, and could benefit from further study as regulation is overhauled, the discussion paper argues
Regulatory regime differences may drive international capital flows, study argues
Financial regulation may need to extend the principle of automatic reciprocity between national jurisdictions, working paper argues
BoE paper offers framework for exploring impact of regulation on interbank lending
Central banks could benefit from studying the impact of regulation on the levels of overnight interbank interest rates