Research
ECB paper finds periphery most affected by credit shortage
Peripheral economies appear to suffer a greater slowdown of productivity than their northern neighbours when facing a squeeze on credit, research published by the ECB finds
Richmond Fed paper examines relationship between deregulation and innovation
Working paper uses a dynamic equilibrium model to look at ATM and debit card industry in US; offers generalised findings on relationship across financial services industry
Philadelphia Fed paper highlights bounce-back in credit card spending
Discussion paper analyses data from Visa Payment Panel Study, finding credit card spending has recovered from a recession-related dip, while growth in debit card spending is slowing
IMF senior counsel explores legal frameworks for public debt management
Senior counsel at IMF’s legal department discusses the many trade-offs involved in designing the legal frameworks underpinning public debt management
SNB paper: both monetary and macro-prudential policy impact arrears
Working paper suggests monetary policy impacts the affordability problems that drive arrears in the short term, while macro-prudential policy can help prevent longer-term problems
IMF paper finds leaning against the wind can work, but it is not optimal
Researchers conclude monetary policy can be used to reduce systemic risks if other, more targeted policy options are unavailable, but macro-prudential policy produces better outcomes
IMF paper weighs impact of low rates on instability
Working paper suggests the ineffective regulatory framework in the US was more to blame for the occurrence and severity of the crisis than low interest rates
ECB research flags signs of Spanish decoupling
Recent recessions appear to have caused Spain’s economy to diverge from those of other major eurozone countries, working paper warns
IMF paper offers advice on transition to inflation-targeting regimes
Guide to switching monetary policy regime recommends gradual approach to ‘buy time’ for central bank adaptation
BoJ paper sees signs of structural shift in pricing behaviour
Study finds rising exchange rate pass-through is in large part the result of a change in firms’ pricing behaviour, although why behaviour has changed remains unclear
San Francisco Fed research examines easing impact of Swiss reserves expansion
SNB asset purchases focused on short maturities still pushed down longer maturity yields, researchers find, which they say holds lessons for eurozone QE
German life insurers vulnerable to interest rate shock, research warns
Discussion paper finds life insurers could have experienced a policyholder run in 2013 if interest rates had risen 2.1 percentage points; says QE might make it hard for insurers to protect themselves
IMF paper: Indian monetary policy transmission is improving
Working paper examines credit channel of monetary policy in India, finding ‘significant, albeit slow’ transmission to the real economy and a gradual improvement over the past few years
Chatham House paper tries to quantify Syrian economic breakdown
Devastation from war, displacement of millions and oil and gas production falling into the hands of Isis and Kurdish forces have combined to create economic disaster
IMF paper finds foreign investor base crucial for EM sensitivity to shocks
Working paper finds emerging markets that rely more on international funds and global banks are more sensitive to ‘global push factors’ such as US monetary policy
NBER paper seeks better model of trend inflation
James Stock and Mark Watson use disaggregated data on sectoral inflation with time-varying weights, finding this can produce a more accurate model of inflation’s long-term trend
IMF paper says ‘one size does not fit all’ with macro-prudential frameworks
Working paper examines use of macro-prudential policy in Hong Kong, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore and Sweden
ECB paper tests systemic risk using ‘VAR for VaR’ model
Researchers use quantile regression in attempt to better account for outliers, which they say could have applications for stress testing
German inequality would fall with US-style home ownership, Bundesbank study shows
Discussion paper fits US home ownership structure to German economy, finding large changes in the distribution and median level of wealth
Norges Bank research reverse-engineers model of US housing crashes
Researchers test a variety of models for their fit with evidence on US housing booms and busts, finding formation of household expectations by moving average performs best
Overconfident forecasters may be ‘overrepresented’ in ECB survey
Working paper finds participation in the Survey of Professional Forecasters drops when uncertainty rises, suggesting the results may be biased
BoE minutes help markets shape expectations, paper finds
Working paper published by ECB finds markets make use of minutes when forming short-term expectations, but relationship breaks down over longer horizons
Cleveland Fed economists cautious over use of Taylor rule
Research emphasises the difficulty in measuring potential output and the natural rate of unemployment accurately and urges policy-makers to ‘take care’ when using the rule
ECB paper emphasises productivity's role in export elasticity
Authors find a range of factors matter when assessing the response of exports to changes in the exchange rate, including productivity and both the type and magnitude of shocks