Research
Shift to single currency increased volatility of money growth, paper argues
The shift to European monetary union had a major impact on the volatility of money growth rates in the eurozone, a working paper from the Banque de France argues
Advice can affect clients' mortgage choices, says BIS paper
Banks may ‘steer’ households towards certain mortgage types; distorted information has a stronger affect when prices are not adjusted
Domestic euro users bear highest shoe leather costs, Bank of Italy paper finds
Euros circulate widely outside the eurozone, transferring some costs to foreigners – but the effect is small relative to the popularity of the euro as a global currency
Norges Bank paper proposes linking CCP risk management to capital charges
Author recommends stress tests of CCPs to gauge interconnectedness, and proposes higher capital charges for CCPs with weaker risk management
South African review charts motivations behind resumption of tightening cycle
One of three chief considerations was the path of exchange rate and the risks it posed to inflation, which increased as the year went on
Historical data supports fiscal theory of the price level, Bundesbank paper argues
Data from the US, Germany and Italy give policy-makers useful data on the long-term influence of fiscal policy on inflation, a Bundesbank discussion paper argues
Peer-monitoring can help identify ‘distressed’ financial institutions, paper says
Colombian working paper presents early warning system which looks at the liquidity price market participants charge one another
BIS paper looks for nuanced story of 2008 bank failures
Failed commercial banks in the US suffered most from their exposure to non-household real-estate borrowers, rather than traditional mortgages or agency MBS, a BIS economist finds
Researchers examine impact of fiscal conditions on long-term rates in OECD
Working paper published by the Bank of Japan analyses 23 member states between 1980 to 2013; finds fiscal conditions impact rates in host of ways
Researchers find ‘strong evidence’ of ECB policy spillovers to CEE countries
Working paper examines the spillover effects of the ECB’s ‘non-standard’ measures since 2007 on the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Romania
Foreign productivity shocks major influence on small, open economies, paper argues
Shocks in large economies, particularly to technology, have a large effect on the business cycles of small, open economies, a Norges Bank working paper shows using a DGSE model
German interbank contagion risk concentrated around four large banks, paper argues
German researchers propose new model to calculate costs of interbank contagion
BIS paper presents interbank money market model
Researchers produce ‘search-based’ model designed to reflect interbank markets in the presence of a central bank corridor system, allowing them to compute the effective interest rate
Changing commodity prices can ‘cushion’ other shocks, Colombian paper says
Colombian working paper suggests commodity price fluctuations do not always amplify business cycles in emerging markets
Risk of banking crisis increases with ‘network centrality’, ECB paper argues
Modelling the interconnectedness of 14 European countries' banking sectors gives valuable information on the likelihood of a crisis, a paper published by the ECB argues
Market and survey-based measures of expectations provide useful information, ECB paper says
Survey-based and market-based measures of inflation expectations provide useful information on future eurozone price increases, a European Central Bank paper argues
Turkish paper finds Fed staff forecasts superior to rivals
Working paper finds forecasts in the ‘Greenbook’ were consistently more accurate than their commercial equivalents between 1974 and 2009
BoE researchers model trend inflation with ambiguity
Researchers develop a model featuring positive trend inflation determined in part by the degree of ambiguity around central bank actions
BIS paper models non-linear eurozone crisis impact
Researchers attempt to capture endogenous amplification mechanisms in causing widened lending spreads during eurozone crises
Identifying the effects of structural shocks exposes problems with real-time data, researchers say
Using a model that identifies the effects of structural shocks, the paper finds ‘substantial and systematic’ differences between ways real-time and final data respond to monetary shocks
More sharia-compliant instruments would aid liquidity management, IMF paper argues
Working paper focused on Gulf states notes a lack of instruments has forced Islamic banks to hold a lot of cash, while making it harder for central banks to conduct monetary operations
Oil prices are key drivers of metal prices, Colombian paper suggests
Research utilising ‘frequency-domain approach’ finds oil prices may be a key drivers of metal prices; consider implications for commodity-rich nations
BoE paper maps UK bank response to 2008 liquidity shock
Authors contribute to international study of banking networks, finding UK banks that grew faster pre-crisis responded more sharply to the liquidity shock in 2008
Italian NPL legislation should shorten bankruptcy proceedings, paper says
Legislation recently passed by the Italian parliament should shorten bankruptcy proceedings and may stimulate a private market for Italy’s non-performing loans, a Bank of Italy paper argues