United States
Risk of inflation de-anchoring is higher in US than Canada – study
Authors say risk has also risen for both countries post-Covid
Do central bank governors make good prime ministers?
Mark Carney is the latest to make the leap, but the record elsewhere has been mixed
‘No strategy’ in US tariffs, says Mexican economist
Measures ignore “triangular” trade relationship between US, China and Mexico
Atlanta Fed’s GDP estimate takes a nosedive
Bank projects more severe contraction in Q1, while analysts point to possible recession
Winds of change 2025: spotting opportunities after peak yields
The outlook for the US fixed income market and emerging and developing market debt
The interest rate dilemma in an uncertain world: a balancing act
Biagio Bossone makes the case for a holistic policy approach that includes extending IT tolerance bands, smart fiscal policies, supply-side reform and financial safeguards
Fed researcher unveils card fraud simulation model
Author says paucity of data means simulation is increasingly important in study of payment fraud
Gen AI will have varying impact on graduates – Fed study
Automation will lead to job cuts but augmentation of roles could create employment, research claims
US tariffs could have larger-than-expected impact – study
Author suggests trade statistics are being misreported
Tighter policy in 2021 would have had ill effects – NY Fed study
Authors argue inflation would have fallen only modestly while global demand would have suffered
War in Taiwan would cause severe disruption – Fed study
Conflict would be most economically impactful since World War II, says author
US house price-to-rent ratio likely to fall – Dallas Fed study
Expected decline could also signal future course of inflation, research argues
Fed’s Barr tells regulators to ‘finish the job’ on Basel III
Not complying with global standards makes US banks less competitive, vice-chair for supervision says
Trump’s tariff threats stress London gold market
Banks scrambling to get enough gold to fund customer positions, with BoE the first port of call
Upside risks from Trump tariffs prompted Fed to hold rates
FOMC minutes show that January’s decision was partly informed by potential changes in US trade policy
Fed governors differ on best way to deal with Trump uncertainty
Waller says monetary policy can’t be “put on hold”, but Bowman calls for wait-and-see approach
Fed study suggests fewer fake dollar bills are in circulation
Research suggests number of counterfeit notes has fallen eightfold since 2006
‘Dark’ oil shipping impacts inflation – paper
Research finds nearly 43% of seaborne crude is shipped undercover to evade sanctions
Looming US Basel endgame redraft sparks calls to save IRB
Experts say 20 years of data makes credit risk models more appropriate than standardised approach
Fed researchers unveil more secure payment system model
Byzantine fault tolerant system can process 110,000 transactions per second
US inflation higher or more cyclical at start of year – study
Dallas Fed research says slowing inflation is more encouraging if it takes place in January
Stablecoins can bolster dollar’s international role, says Waller
Fed governor also warns against domestic and international regulatory fragmentation
Powell: ‘We’re close, but not there yet on inflation’
Fed chair also addresses bank independence, climate risk and CBDCs during testimony before Congress