Chance of US recession lower, but still high – NY Fed study
Authors say model puts chances at 75%, compared with 83% at beginning of 2024
A model created by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York estimates the current likelihood of recession in the US at 75% – eight percentage points lower than it was estimating 18 months ago.
The researchers, Richard Crump and Nikolay Gospodinov, emphasise that their findings do not constitute an official forecast by the New York Fed.
When using a sample of data from 1972 to 2025, Crump and Gospodinov found the probability of a near-term recession rose above 50% before each
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@centralbanking.com or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.centralbanking.com/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@centralbanking.com to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@centralbanking.com
More on Economics
Rate changes have biggest impact on goods and housing – RBNZ study
Research analyses impact of rate hikes following pandemic-related inflation
Tariffs do not solve tensions but erode global growth – Lagarde
In speech to the PBoC, ECB president says countries with surpluses and deficits must both try to find solutions
US bank profitability measure continues rising – study
Net interest margin climbed throughout 2024 and Q1 2025, St Louis Fed research finds
IMF’s Adrian highlights GaR’s value in scenario analysis
Chief financial counsellor tells Summer Meetings of motivation in developing award-winning framework
BoK expresses ‘grave concern’ over Korean economy
Governor says stimulus needed, but cautions against expecting too much from rate cuts
Acting US currency comptroller defends pre-emption
Hood says principle is in line with federal law and court precedent
Inflationary shocks hurt US labour market and output – Fed study
As real wages decline, workers search for new, less economically productive jobs, research finds
Jobs, not prices, are main reason for dissent on FOMC – study
Votes show unemployment in presidents’ districts is of greater concern to them than inflation