Economics
Paper challenges Rey’s ideas on global financial cycle
Cerutti, Claessens and Rose contest idea that capital flows are mainly the result of common shocks or developments in the US
IMF paper explores relation between greenhouse gas emissions and GDP growth
Research studies how advanced economies are transitioning to low-emissions economic models
Latin America lags in use of robotics, but faces same threats
Robots threaten over 50% of jobs across the region, report warns, though they offer an opportunity to boost productivity
San Francisco Fed research explores evolution of job-matching efficiency
As people out of the labour force are included, the volatility of the job-to-job transition rate falls, economists find
Opaque money markets work well, Nobel laureate says
Bengt Holmström says policymakers should not try to make money markets more transparent
New NY Fed dataset shows weakening labour market
New York Fed unveils new, more granular labour market data; results so far indicate wage growth is still elusive
IMF’s Adrian sketches macro-financial model of term premium
Tobias Adrian outlines a new way of modelling financial cycles within a New Keynesian framework, which produces a good fit with empirical observations on the term structure
Oil prices feed through to core inflation – Fed paper
Research finds changes in the oil price have a small but statistically significant impact on core inflation
National Bank of Denmark sees "major challenges" for Greenland’s economy
Greenland is experiencing an economic boom, but needs to diversify its economy; central bank warns political independence may be a mistake
Wage growth may be stronger than headline figures suggest
San Francisco Fed researchers point to evidence that headline figures may overstate wage weakness; UK figures provide a positive surprise
RBI launches economics blog
“Mint Street Memos” comprise brief reports and analysis from RBI economists; first post studies beneficial effects of demonetisation for “financialisation” of savings
Goodhart and Pradhan: demographics will reverse ‘multi-decade’ trends
Ageing population is likely to put upward pressure on real interest rates and inflation, and push down inequality, economists say
UK economy vulnerable to consumption-led recession
Fragile consumer spending could take a toll on growth, former BoE officials warn, leaving the central bank with a tough job ahead
Piecing together a financial theory of stagnation
Ideas presented at recent BIS annual meetings reveal an emerging framework that explains how the financial system may be dragging down the real economy; Hélène Rey was the latest to contribute
Paper proposes method to estimate network of exposures
Researcher draws on aggregate exposures and market data to build a more complete picture of the network of bank exposures
Flexible working may shift Nairu, ECB’s Mersch warns
Technology may increase insecurity and weaken collective bargaining, says senior ECB figure
Singapore’s inflation sees sudden drop in June
Sharp fall in inflation was due to the falling prices of housing maintenance and repairs, triggered by the timing of government rebates
BoE economists issue ‘call to arms’ for macro-prudential research
Researchers outline a simple framework to help understand the macro-prudential “balancing act”, but say there is a long way to go in developing a definitive model
BoE paper warns escape from secular stagnation may ‘beggar thy self’
Authors outline an unappealing situation where the only escape comes from currency depreciation, but may nevertheless end up harming domestic welfare
Non-banks drive rebound in cross-border banking – BIS
First-quarter statistics show non-banks helped drive a turnaround of cross-border banking flows, which had been in retreat
BoE’s Broadbent: globalisation has been largely a good thing
Bank of England deputy says flexible labour market has helped dull the pain of adjustment to trade shocks, while lower prices have most benefited the poorest groups
Yellen warns of debt impact on productivity
Fed chair states in “strongest possible terms” that the current spending by the US government is unsustainable and could harm productivity
CEPR paper sketches ‘radical, realistic’ Greek reform plan
Stanford and Yale economists outline “unorthodox” policies that could put Greek debt on a sustainable footing – and might be acceptable to all negotiating parties
St Louis’s Bullard on the future of the Fed and its monetary policy record
St Louis Fed president James Bullard rails against east coast dominance, favours aspects of the Choice Act and says Fed monetary policy was a “factor” that fuelled crisis