Dallas Fed research casts doubt on ‘soft landing’

US Fed chair Jerome Powell sees US worker shortages as “more structural than cyclical”

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Photo: Andreas Praefcke

After the last US Federal Reserve rate decision on February 1, chair Jerome Powell said he continued to think there is a path to 2% inflation without a “significant” rise in unemployment, in other words, a “soft landing”.

But authors with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas argue it will be much harder and the path will be narrower than the Fed anticipates.

“A soft landing is possible but less likely than previous studies have suggested,” argue the researchers. “The theoretical arguments

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