Monetary Policy
Norges Bank strikes hawkish tone with rates hold
Inflation “in line” with June projection and two cuts still on table for this year, central bank says
Bessent expects BoJ to raise policy rate
US Treasury secretary also says inflation in Japan is dragging up yields on long-term US bonds
Climate risks still on the fringe of monetary policy in Asia
Notwithstanding efforts by the PBoC and BoJ, there is still a need to observe persistent and measurable impacts on inflation and output before climate change truly influences interest rate policy, argues Sayuri Shirai
BoT cuts policy rate and forecasts tariff-induced slowdown
Thai central bank cuts by 25bp at final meeting before dovish Vitai becomes governor
Australia cuts rates by 25bp as expected
RBA governor says inflation within target, as bank’s forecasts assume further cuts
Bailey, the IMF and the fundamental asymmetry problem
The IMF must address sovereign asymmetry and transform surveillance into a tool for mutual accountability, argues Biagio Bossone
Is this time different for Argentina?
Reserve shortage and overvalued currency cast a pall over an otherwise successful stabilisation campaign
Experts split over wisdom of Mexico’s 25bp rates cut
Economist says policy committee’s sole dissenter was right to vote to hold
Czech Republic holds rates again and upgrades growth outlook
CNB says economy running hot on all fronts warrants restrictiveness in monetary stance
Trump picks Miran to replace Kugler on Fed board
Adviser set to take up role until January as president continues search to replace Powell as chair
US’s gains from tariffs diminish when countries retaliate – study
Dallas Fed authors say negotiated settlements may be best for all concerned
Fed policy may disproportionally affect largest banks – study
More leveraged US lenders experience sharper stock declines following rate hikes, Fed paper finds
BoJ eyes further rate hikes, possibly by year’s end
Central bank says global economies’ resilience to tariffs “remarkable”, while predicting slowdown
Book notes: How low interest rates change the world, by Jesper Rangvid
This book investigates the possible causes of ultra-low interest rates, the problems low rates cause and the path of future rates
BoE cuts rates by 25bp in historic close call
For first time in history, MPC voted twice as initial round ended in 4–4–1 stalemate
RBNZ survey respondents expect bank to cut policy rate
Business leaders and forecasters also expect weaker inflation in New Zealand over medium term
Working group minutes: seeking better interactions on social media
Building engagement is a challenge and brings risks for central bankers
India holds policy, thus ending easing cycle
Central bank leaves rate at 5.5%, citing lower inflation and continued risks from US tariffs
Kugler’s resignation from Fed opens door for Trump, say experts
Governor’s departure could enable president to appoint “shadow chair” to further undermine Powell
Vietnam asks lenders to reduce interest rates
Central bank says lower rates are needed to support country’s growth target
China analysts expect moderate rate cuts in H2
PBoC mirrors politburo stance in mid-year meeting while eyeing further internationalisation of yuan
News coverage affects inflation expectations – NBER paper
Authors say bad news has bigger impact on perceptions of inflation
ECB paper finds strong policy can stop expectations de-anchoring
Communicating counterfactual scenarios can help to inform monetary policy decisions
South Africa’s central bank denies reducing inflation target
Sarb says it is targeting bottom of existing 3–6% range, after reports it had bypassed Treasury