Geopolitics and supply shocks top monetary policy risks outlook
Risk factors vary by nominal anchors and geographical regions
More than half of central banks see geopolitics and supply shocks as high risks to their jurisdictions over the next year, data from the Monetary Policy Benchmarks 2025 shows.
Respondents graded risks within a score band of 1 to 5, with 1 being very low risk and 5 indicating very high risk. Among the risks, both geopolitics and supply shocks (including tariffs) received the highest average scores of 3.7. The grades assigned to fiscal policy averaged 3.1, while wage increases and financial
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