Economics
Economists use payments data to build high-speed indicator
Team says transaction-based metric gives quick insight into consumer spending
Bank of Israel proposes measures to stabilise social security system
Benefit payments set to rise faster than GDP in the coming decades, warns central bank
Central banks are ‘riders on the storm’, say Jordà and Taylor
Central banks control less than half the overall variation in interest rates, authors find
Book notes: Narrative economics, by Robert Shiller
The book is good fun to read, but some elements are a little disappointing
‘Non-salient fees’ matter for mortgage pricing – BoE paper
Many borrowers appear to be less sensitive to fees than to interest rates, and firms exploit this
High public debt hampers fiscal stimulus in eurozone – Bank of Portugal research
High debt deepens crises, increases spillover effects and cuts scope for counter-cyclical fiscal policy
Trade uncertainty ‘surging’ in many countries, IMF warns
New IMF index tracks trade uncertainty across the globe
Machine learning can produce better forecasts – RBI paper
ML tends to outperform standard models, but combining forecasts is best, authors say
IMF research flags urgent need for climate policy framework
Co-ordination of fiscal, financial and monetary instruments will be needed, say authors
Bank of Israel research derives growth estimate from survey data
Researchers construct real-time indicator that can be produced earlier than nowcasts
30 years of forecasting: have central banks learned anything?
Forecasting models are constantly being upgraded, but forecast errors are still persistent. What more can central banks do?
BoE paper models exchange rates with private money creation
Uncovered interest parity does a poor job of explaining exchange rates on its own, authors say
BIS authors offer advice on escaping low inflation trap
Luiz Pereira da Silva and co-authors say “snapback” unlikely, given changing labour markets
BoE forced to reveal latest analysis of no-deal Brexit
Carney writes that preparations have helped reduce likely impact of “worst-case” no-deal
Israel’s Yaron calls for targeted spending as elections draw near
Governor says fiscal policy must seek to boost living standards while maintaining discipline
Brexit may have cost the UK 5% of productivity – BoE paper
Study draws on newly developed survey of decision-makers at UK firms
Inflation edges higher as Fed prepares for next meeting
Consumer spending boosts economy, but recent sentiment data suggests it could be about change
RBA sheds light on new ‘Martin’ macro model
Large-scale “macroeconometric” model designed to balance flexibility and theoretical rigour
BoE policy-makers face fallout from political chaos
November policy decision could be unveiled on an election day; new analysis by MPC members suggests worst economic impact yet to come
Economists publish ‘crash course’ on euro crisis
Brunnermeier and Reis say framework is designed to help students grasp the macro-financial roots of recent crises
Summers and Stansbury warn of ‘black hole’ as central bankers debate solutions
Economists say they hope for revolutionary thinking at Jackson Hole conference – “but we are not holding our breath”
Estonian paper looks at Eastern European credit
Lack of competition in banking sectors is fueling pro-cyclical credit creation, researchers find
AI can help predict consumer defaults – NBER paper
Researchers say “deep learning” could be useful in designing macro-prudential policies
Kansas Fed develops real-time GDP tracker
The tracker builds on previous work by combining two forecast models