Economics
Trump’s tax cuts boosted growth and jobs – Dallas Fed paper
Researcher uses state-level data on tax cuts to estimate national impact
Ageing populations will keep interest rates low – BdF paper
Housing availability can attenuate decline in rates, authors find
BoE paper: simple communication can backfire
Success of communication is not measured by number of people reached, paper states
Rates have been falling for eight centuries – BoE research
Study casts doubt on major theories, including secular stagnation; author warns rates could “soon enter permanently negative territory”
Central bank research may be too focused on narrow topics – paper
Network analysis finds many central banks are limited in the scope of their research
Machine learning can produce better credit scores – BIS paper
Fintech firms may be better at predicting default rates, researchers find
Macroeconomics is not broken
The discipline has moved beyond the neoclassical synthesis. Critics should too
Network effects magnify impact of US monetary policy – BdF paper
Researchers find that impact of US monetary policy is increased by complex cross-border interactions
Claudio Borio says central bank independence is tied to globalisation
Both are underpinned by the same “economic and political zeitgeist”, the BIS economist says
Dutch corporate sector is key source of current account surplus
SMEs save to finance investment due to higher borrowing rates than large companies
‘Green finance’ standards ineffective with smaller firms – BdF paper
Banks lend to smaller firms irrespective of their industries’ polluting records, researcher says
Paper looks at pro-cyclical consumption in Spain
Households reacted strongly to fears of job losses during economic crisis, Bank of Spain says
ECB paper presents new measure for global financial cycle
Researchers say global financial cycle and large capital flow episodes show consistent links
Eurozone bond purchases work as stabilisation tool – BoI paper
Researchers simulate effectiveness of sovereign bond purchases against both real and financial shocks
Global climate cycles create varied growth challenges – paper
Changing climate has different impact on growth depending on country’s normal climate, researchers find
T&T governor calls for productivity reforms
Alvin Hilaire says improvement still required despite recent increase in productivity
Global house price growth slows, but China still surging
BIS figures show broad slowdown in growth, though prices are still rising fast in some places
Home-ownership affected by culture, Bundesbank paper finds
Researchers find strong variation in home-owning by different US immigrant groups
Legal reforms drive growth for middle-income states – research
Growth in financial sectors does not mean increase in economic growth - Bank of Spain paper
Interest-bearing CBDCs could solve welfare trade-off – IMF paper
Making CBDCs interest-bearing would avoid dangers to cash use or bank deposits
Emerging markets face growing debt risk – IMF paper
One-third of emerging market debt over-valued as low-income countries set to issue more
US growth trend could fall for the next 10 years, SF Fed paper warns
Productivity slowdown in construction has contributed 30% of slowdown since 1950s, researchers find
US-China trade deal could damage some countries’ trade flows – IMF paper
Eurozone could face loss of trade from between $61 billion to $84 billion, researchers find
Swedish paper investigates weak wage growth
Labour shortages may be lower than previously thought, researchers argue