Economics
US Treasury designates China a currency manipulator
Renminbi crossed the barrier of seven per US dollar amid growing trade tensions on August 5
Institutional approaches are key factor in mortgage defaults – BoE paper
European countries show major differences in mortgage default factors, researchers find
Dallas Fed paper looks at impact of tech shocks
Researchers exploit forecast data for “more precise” identification of technology shocks
‘Night-time luminosity’ can shed light on growth – RBI paper
Satellite data is useful as a high-frequency indicator of economic activity, authors find
Non-banks attracting more global liquidity than banks for first time
In Q1, more liquidity flowed to non-banks than banks for the first time in 40 years of BIS data
Two-thirds of countries failing to meet global standards on inflation – IMF paper
More than half the world has not updated CPI weighting in the last five years, researchers find
Sovereign default risk affects bank assets – Bank of Italy paper
Researchers look at data on bank assets from 15 countries from 2004–18
Higher inflation expectations can cut consumption – research
Authors conduct randomised control trial to test “forward guidance puzzle”
Proposal to axe Phillips curve triggers controversy
“One cannot just ignore an equation,” retorts Olivier Blanchard
Book notes: Humanomics, by Vernon L Smith and Bart J Wilson
While being authored by world-class Adam Smith specialists means this is a must-read, the value-added of the book “remains a bit vague”
RBA’s Lowe defends inflation target’s effectiveness
Alternative frameworks would be difficult to implement and harder to explain – Australian governor
Climate change will hit US growth hard – Dallas Fed study
US growth could fare worse than China’s with projected temperature rises, researchers find
Policy uncertainty can magnify cost shocks – BoI paper
Lack of clarity over inflation targets increases effects of cost-push shocks on output, researchers say
Surge in cross-border credit led by non-banks
Cross-border claims rise at fastest rate since the global crisis, BIS figures show
BoE faces bleak outlook as new prime minister appointed
Think-tank says UK may already be in recession, as threat of “no-deal” Brexit looms
Bank of Spain launches data lab for research
Economists now have access to micro-data on the country’s non-financial firms
Hyperinflation threatens to return to Zimbabwe
Official inflation almost doubles as economic threats remain
Ethiopia needs to rebalance after investment boom – IMF Africa chief
Country has achieved impressive development but vulnerabilities have grown, says Abebe Aemro Selassie
BoE paper questions technological explanations for falling ‘labour share’
Measurement problems may account for less income seeming to flow to workers, authors say
Reforms have cut Latin American unemployment – IMF paper
But informal employment and inequality remain high, researcher says
BoI paper presents new method for eurozone inflation forecasts
Model works well to predict inflation using data from bloc’s four largest economies, authors say
IMF supports Cabo Verde’s reforms with new programme
IMF supports monetary policy reform and says the central bank must improve supervision and comms
NBER paper outlines ‘four-equation model’
Authors expand the textbook three-equation model to account for unconventional monetary policy; extra policy tool is necessary to overcome credit shocks
Regulators need ‘stick and carrot’ to deal with NPLs – BoI paper
Optimal policy combines capital transfers and NPL disposals to wipe out owners’ rents – researchers