Financial cycle useful for forecasting recessions – BIS paper


The financial cycle is a useful basis for forecasting recessions and can generate more accurate predictions than standard methods, research published by the Bank for International Settlements finds.

Claudio Borio, Mathias Drehmann and Dora Xia say they seek to fill a gap in the literature, which to date has explored the real-economy implications of financial cycles without doing much to develop financial cycle-based early-warning indicators.

They run a “horse race” between several financial

Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.

To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact [email protected] or view our subscription options here:

You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact [email protected] to find out more.

To continue reading...

You need to sign in to use this feature. If you don’t have a Central Banking account, please register for a trial.

Sign in
You are currently on corporate access.

To use this feature you will need an individual account. If you have one already please sign in.

Sign in.

Alternatively you can request an individual account here: