Unemployment
FOMC vote rotation ‘distorts’ rates – NBER paper
Regional Fed presidents make decisions based on local conditions, research finds
Iceland and Switzerland cut rates, while Sweden holds
Central banks highlight global developments and high levels of uncertainty
US farmers need extra revenue to make ends meet – research
Costs largely outweigh income generated by agri, says Richmond Fed study
Rates should stimulate economy in response to tariffs – study
Optimal monetary policy promotes employment and income, Minneapolis Fed paper argues
Upside risks from Trump tariffs prompted Fed to hold rates
FOMC minutes show that January’s decision was partly informed by potential changes in US trade policy
Fed vice-chair says rate cuts most likely over medium term
Jefferson says inflation and labour risks are in balance and cautions against immediate policy shift
Book notes: Central bank capitalism: monetary policy in times of crisis, by Joscha Wullweber
This book asks if independent monetary policy is feasible at a time when central banks prop up the poorly regulated shadow banking sector
Norges Bank says time is not yet right for easing
Central bank holds rates, but suggests cut is likely in March
Fed board members pledge caution in cutting rates
Governors say unemployment and inflation risks are roughly in balance
CNB’s Aleš Michl on tackling inflation, Friedman’s legacy and ditching DSGE
The Czech governor speaks about policy mistakes, targeting M2, diversifying into equities and gold, building new models and ending interest payments on minimum reserves
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bp
Powell says effects of Trump’s proposed policies, including tariffs, remain unclear
Demographics could trigger closures of US universities – study
Research by Philly Fed says fewer young people are enrolling, which is adding to financial pressures
ECB cuts rates by 25bp
Eurosystem disinflation “well on track” and council “did not discuss” TPI, says Lagarde
US inflation expectations tick up across all time horizons
NY Fed survey finds more respondents expect prices to rise over one- three- and five-year timeframes
US consumers predict growing pressure from inflation and debt
More respondents to NY Fed survey expect to miss payments and to face steeper price rises
FOMC in no hurry to cut rates, says Powell
September’s loosening reflects growing confidence in soft landing, argues Fed chair
FOMC initiates rate cutting with 50bp reduction
Experts say Fed’s credibility is not on the line, but Powell remains under significant pressure
FOMC members signal rate cut
Waller, Bostic, Daly, Schmid, Goolsbee and Williams speak towards balancing both sides of dual mandate
Phillips curve differs depending on labour market – Fed study
Research finds curve to be flat in normal markets and steep in tight ones
Bank closures lead to job cuts at small businesses – Fed study
Research finds that if 25% of local branches close, employment growth falls by four percentage points
BLS revises US employment downward
Bureau says 818,000 fewer jobs were created over year to March than it had previously estimated