Recession
Are low-level inflation targets still fit for purpose?
Geostrategic shifts make the case for a narrow price target less compelling
Governance and diversity at the Federal Reserve
Could changes in governance practices have contributed to poor performance in 2021–22? asks Jeffrey Lacker
Claudio Borio on financial cycles, operating frameworks and non-bank reform
The BIS veteran highlights a ‘unique constellation’ of challenges as central banks travel the ‘last mile’ in bringing down inflation – and says there are many more miles to go on non-bank reform
The predicament of bloated central bank balance sheets
Swollen balance sheets carry significant risks for combating inflation, ensuring financial stability and preserving central bank credibility, independence and effectiveness. How can central banks reduce them?
Fed leaders split on whether further rate rise is needed
Leaders agree a soft landing is possible but not certain
Global growth is stalling: what must be done?
Jagjit Chadha says leaders are failing to make a serious attempt to tackle deepening global problems
German economy remains stagnant in Q2
Official figures show no growth as outlook for eurozone largest economy’s remains weak
Largest US banks pass the Fed’s stress test
Scenario saw banks continue lending despite losses three times greater than those of 2008 crisis
Book notes: Labor in the age of finance, by Sanford M Jacoby
A fascinating attempt to document the US labour movement’s efforts to use pension fund money to bolster its voice
Policy has not been tight long enough – governors
Hot labour markets boost wages and core inflation, making inflation persistent
No significant risk of US recession – St Louis Fed research
Sahm Rule and leading economic data indicate low – but not zero – recession risk
A letter to Andrew Bailey
As the Bank of England struggles to bring inflation down, Jagjit Chadha warns the governor not to let markets take control
Central banks face tough fight for ‘last mile’ of disinflation – BIS
Credit losses could rival global financial crisis in higher-for-longer scenario, institution warns
IMF economist takes on vexed question of macro-pru calibration
Housing markets are “at a turning point”, says Laura Valderrama, and policy faces tough trade-offs
Book notes: The Federal Reserve: a new history, by Robert L Hetzel
This book should become the standard reference for scholars
IMF’s Adrian on the systemic threat posed by a ‘weak tail’ of financial institutions
The IMF’s financial counsellor speaks to Christopher Jeffery about bank runs and emergency interventions, market and oversight failings, and the need for action on run rate assumptions, interest rate risk, deposit insurance, crypto regulation and a ‘weak…
Advanced economies face slowdown and stubborn inflation
Jagjit Chadha analyses the shifting outlook for the world economy, with more hard work ahead for central banks
Fed raises rates by 25bp as it chases lower core inflation
Policy-makers still need to “take away the punch bowl”, economist says
Book notes: Money and the rule of law, by Peter Boettke, Alexander Salter and Daniel Smith
A largely US-focused book, which hankers for more robust rules for central banks but isn’t explicit as to what kind
What is happening to US wages?
Economists disagree over causes of real wage stagnation
Book notes: The next age of uncertainty, by Stephen Poloz
This book provides a well-informed and well-argued view about our economic future