Recession
Top officials weigh impact of trade war and AI
ECB president says impact of US tariffs has been “exact opposite” of expectations
Chance of US recession lower, but still high – NY Fed study
Authors say model puts chances at 75%, compared with 83% at beginning of 2024
Reflections on the international financial situation
Former IMF head Jacques de Larosière writes that markets are blind to Trump's policy shocks that are fragmenting the monetary ‘system’, causing strain in the eurozone and may result in stagflation
Tariffs not the only policy causing uncertainty – Fed presidents
Officials highlight risks from US administration’s approaches to deregulation and immigration
Maurice Obstfeld on the trade war’s damage to the monetary system
The former IMF chief economist speaks about Trump’s chaotic economic policies, the erosion of Fed independence and dollar stability, difficult policy trade-offs for central banks, and the threat to the Bretton Woods institutions
Experts divided over contraction in US economy
Ex-NY Fed chief says latest figures are an anomaly, though others point to Trump policies’ impact
‘Liberation day’ likely to cause US recession – NBER study
Paper sets out conditions for tariff-driven downturn and says US is likely to meet them
EU policy-makers lash out at Trump’s trade policy
Central banks say tariffs will create “many losers” in both Europe and the US
CNB’s Aleš Michl on tackling inflation, Friedman’s legacy and ditching DSGE
The Czech governor speaks about policy mistakes, targeting M2, diversifying into equities and gold, building new models and ending interest payments on minimum reserves
Central banks to maintain independence despite threats – panel
Top central bankers discuss Trump, AI and why they plan to ignore IMF on rate cuts
Fed makes post-presidential election rate cut
Chair Powell stresses Trump’s election as president will have no effect on policy in the near term and he has no plans to resign at Trump’s request
Governors weigh macroeconomic risks at G30 event
Officials from Netherlands, South Africa, BIS and more consider debt, inflation and climate change
Malaysia’s Zeti on the key skills needed to be a successful central banker
The Bank Negara veteran speaks about leadership skills, lessons from the AFC and 1MDB crises, her scepticism of inflation targeting, and how the Asia School of Business' masters synthesises theory with practical realities
Lessons learned on macro-pru policies
Macro-prudential tools are proving their worth although use cases vary by country; integration into over-arching policy frameworks remains a challenge
Czech Republic, Sweden and Switzerland cut rates
25bp cuts across Europe follow Fed’s footsteps
All eyes on the Fed
The US central bank faces a challenging path to fulfil its mandated goals
Greedflation, if it ever existed, is correcting itself
Steve Kamin constructs a “wage gap” to assess inflationary pressures in the US
Did the Fed make a mistake holding rates in July?
Experts warn Fed not to signal “panic” but to be ready to act aggressively if needed
Are low-level inflation targets still fit for purpose?
Geostrategic shifts make the case for a narrow price target less compelling
Risks facing central banks: action and inaction
Unlike Fed policy in the 1990s, central bank actions this century do not appear overly accommodative, given poor policy decisions elsewhere, writes Andrew Smithers
Profit inflation and monetary policy: weighing the evidence
Biagio Bossone says profit inflation needs monetary ‘fuel’ to rise – but fiscal policy is the best fix, should governments have the ‘guts’