Recession
What is happening to US wages?
Economists disagree over causes of real wage stagnation
Book notes: The next age of uncertainty, by Stephen Poloz
This book provides a well-informed and well-argued view about our economic future
Book notes: A guide to good money, by Brendan Brown and Robert Pringle
The authors make some good points even if one does not agree with this full-bodied attack on Keynesian economics and inflation targeting
Disinflation may trigger recession, say Mester and Jefferson
Fed president and governor acknowledge policy tightening is uncertain and costly
How US demographics complicate the Fed’s job
Ageing population and pandemic legacy are confounding economists’ predictions
Bank of Canada officials explain monetary policy transition
Central bank publishes first record of monetary policy meeting discussions
RBA makes ninth straight rise and forecasts more to come
Governor warns Australia will be slow to achieve its inflation target
The strong dollar, global inflation and global recession
Steve Kamin asks whether the Fed’s tight policy is pushing the world towards recession
Rethinking the CCyB
As central banks rush to replenish bank capital reserves, the countercyclical buffer may need some fine-tuning
2022: The year in review
The invasion of Ukraine left central banks facing yet another exceptional set of challenges this year
Fed slows rate rises with 50bp increase
Powell stresses possibility of soft landing supported by “structural labour shortage”
Book notes: A monetary and fiscal history of the United States, 1961–2021, by Alan Blinder
An infusion of the history of fiscal policy into a theoretical framework traditionally focused on monetary instruments
Chile’s Costa on tackling inflation, forex interventions and nowcasting
Chilean governor discusses stubbornly high prices, Fed spillovers, reserve buffers, retail CBDC and unconscious bias
Book notes: Zero interest rate policy and the new abnormal, by Michael Beenstock
Thesis that QE caused low r* is entertaining and infuriating in equal measure
RBNZ delivers record 75bp rate rise to curb inflation
Central bank now expects policy rate to peak at 5.5% next year, up from previous estimate of 4.1%
Book notes: Yellen, by Jon Hilsenrath
Offers new insights into the tough decisions Yellen has made as a pre-eminent economic policy-maker
World has ‘very little space’ for policy, says Georgieva
Carney, Georgieva, Donohoe and El-Erian agree room is limited and mistakes are punished harshly
IMF publishes sober outlook for 2023
“Worst is yet to come”, says chief economist
Turkish central bank cuts rates despite 80% official inflation
MPC says growth rate could be slowing, and warns of pressure on current account
Inflation: what went wrong, and why?
Three theories on the causes of high inflation and their implications for policy responses
Global economy faces four key risks, warns MAS chief
Ravi Menon says era of cheap money, cheap labour and cheap energy is most likely over
US needs tighter policy, former senior Fed adviser says
Higher rates will cause little damage to supply chains, David Wilcox argues
BoE’s planned procyclical capital hike bewilders banks
Some doubt regulator will go through with buffer hike while forecasting recession