Economics
ECB and EBA action may have limited CoCo contagion – BoI paper
Deutsche Bank CoCos spread volatility throughout European banks in 2016, researchers find
Machine learning model outperforms professional forecasters
The model may uncover new relationships in data that were previously overlooked, researcher says
Podcast: The post-crisis world
Andrew Metrick says central banks have changed dramatically since 2008, but more work may be needed to develop new models
ECB unveils richer eurozone forecasting model
“NAWM II” models financial sector’s role in originating and propagating economic shocks
PRA using AI to understand connectivity of rulebook
UK regulator is using Google search engine algorithm to see if rulebook can be streamlined, says BoE’s Proudman
Oxford academic argues Milton Friedman is misunderstood
James Forder says Friedman had a bigger impact on neoclassical economics than on monetarism
IMF programmes do not harm governments’ financing ability – ECB paper
Governments use IMF as an excuse when “struggling with transparency”, authors argue
Atlanta Fed launches new rental market data tool
The affordability tracker sheds a new light on how many households in the region are struggling to find affordable housing
Fed official downbeat on US labour market
US labour market participation in stark contrast to advanced-economy counterparts, Daly warns
ECB paper looks at large database on inflation expectations
Expectations more powerful when lower bound on nominal rates is binding, researchers find
Housing bottlenecks could boost eurozone inflation – ECB paper says
Labour shortage, scarcity of building land, and administrative hurdles could limit supply
Immigrants smooth eurozone labour market shocks – Bank of Italy paper
Non-EU immigrants have higher mobility than Europeans moving between countries – researchers
BoE paper proposes fix for flawed rate expectation estimates
Model augmented with overnight indexed swap rates performs better, author says
Eurozone may be close to potential growth – ECB paper
But all estimates of potential GDP should be treated with caution, researchers argue
Fiscal deficits caused persistent pressure for Mexican inflation, paper finds
Central bank independence stabilised inflation, researchers find
US unemployment remains at lowest level since 1969
Hourly wage growth is at highest rate since 2009, but year-on-year inflation falls to 2%
BoE paper proposes nowcast method for GDP revisions
Dynamic factor model reveals information on how early estimates may be revised, authors say
Costa Rican public debt feeding into inflation expectations
The central bank says it remains “vigilant” to tensions that may compromise its inflation target
IMF’s Adrian calls for forecasting upgrade
Policy forecasts should do a better job of capturing endogenous risk, economist says
Can central bank revamp help Tunisia remain a ‘public good’?
Central Bank of Tunisia moves to modernise, but faces tough times ahead
Agent-based models: a new frontier for macroeconomics?
Agent-based modelling is opening up new possibilities for economics, but the discipline is still struggling to move from the sidelines to the mainstream
BoE paper highlights flaws in bank modelling
Many models still treat banks as “warehouses”, authors say, with important modelling implications
Populist policies can wreck economies, Sarb governor warns
South Africa needs economic stability, Kganyago says