IMF’s Adrian calls for forecasting upgrade

Tobias Adrian
Tobias Adrian
IMF Staff Photograph/Stephen Jaffe

One of the International Monetary Fund’s most senior economists has called on central banks to do a better job of forecasting, suggesting they incorporate the endogeneity of risk into key models.

Tobias Adrian, head of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, warned standard models had failed to keep up with a growing literature on how risks might impact forecasts, and therefore affect policy choices.

“Models of optimal monetary policy should take into account the endogeneity of risk

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