Unemployment
US banks hold up under Fed stress tests
Latest annual stress tests show 31 largest bank-holding companies would lose $490 billion under the Fed’s severely adverse scenario, which has been tightened compared to 2014
French paper models flattening Philips curve
Working paper develops a two-country, new-Keynesian model to replicate the flattening of the curve in developed countries over the past 25 years, a trend widely attributed to globalisation
Fed officials debate research on equilibrium real rates
Research presented at US Monetary Policy Forum says uncertainty around equilibrium rate means the Fed should delay tightening policy; Loretta Mester and William Dudley discuss findings
Paper tackles US inflation puzzle with new Phillips curve
Authors of research published by IMF find core inflation movements can be explained by anchored expectations and short-term unemployment “stories”
Researchers find evidence of ‘European unemployment cycle’
Working paper published by The Netherlands Bank separates the different origins of unemployment in Europe, finding the continent- and country-level factors most influential
BoE research identifies strong impact from long-term unemployment on inflation
Working paper finds evidence that models incorporating linear Phillips curves are underestimating the effect of long-term unemployment on wage inflation
BoE’s Weale posits method of overcoming uncertainty
MPC member says studying rates of change can help overcome uncertainty about spare capacity and the natural rate of interest when setting policy
Carney says 'striking' labour market differences will prompt ‘less synchronised' monetary policy
The Bank of England governor addresses UK wage conundrum; argues US is in worse position as its headline unemployment rate is 'much better than the details'
Dallas Fed president praises India PM Modi
Richard Fisher describes Texas as the ‘crucible of US job creation', noting that without it US would not yet have reached pre-recession employment levels
Draghi encourages ‘greater role’ for fiscal policy
ECB president says a policy mix of monetary, fiscal and structural measures is necessary to keep the eurozone recovery on track, in his remarks at Jackson Hole
Korea needs more women and young people in work, paper finds
Labour market ‘duality' and low youth and female employment are holding back growth, according to paper written by Bank of Korea and IMF economists
Stagnant wages amid falling unemployment creates headache for BoE
Bank of England halves wage growth forecast for 2014 as unemployment seen falling below 6%; Mark Carney notes ‘wide range of views' on MPC about degree of slack
Paper examines optimal monetary policy for wages and hours worked
Firms tend to pay too little for too many hours, economists argue in ECB-published paper; monetary policy should not target inflation too strictly, they say
The challenges for central banks
Demands are being made for central banks to consider financial stability alongside price stability, as a key component of their monetary policy. But that is nothing new for central banks
Adjusted calculation of US employment-to-population ratio signals return to pre-crisis level
Atlanta Fed paper uses micro-data to account for individual characteristics and probability of labour force participation; finds ratio has regained pre-recession level of nearly 63%
Lockhart needs higher wage growth and participation before raising rates
Atlanta Fed president says firmer wage growth and a higher participation rate are needed before the Federal Open Market Committee should raise interest rates
Plosser: Fed should be stripped of dual mandate
Charles Plosser says the Federal Reserve should ‘focus solely’ on price stability, as monetary policy has ‘very limited ability’ to influence employment
Rosengren calls on FOMC to update forward guidance
Boston Fed president Eric Rosengren – who is not on the FOMC this year – calls for guidance to be increasingly linked to achieving the dual mandate
Cyclical character of US unemployment makes monetary policy a remedy, says Yellen
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen argues cyclical character of US unemployment renders monetary policy an important tool in fighting it
Policy must do more to get women and low-skilled into work, paper finds
Slovak economists analyse the elasticity of labour supply and find that changes in the tax and benefits system could entice women in particular into the workforce
Fed's Bullard wants more research into what drives labour market participation
St Louis Fed president concludes the existing literature suggests demographics are behind most of the decline in participation, but calls for more detailed work on household participation decisions
Vaguer guidance in vogue as unemployment continues to confound
As UK and US unemployment brushes the thresholds of monetary policy forward guidance, central banks' next moves are anything but straightforward
Disappointing jobs report raises questions over Fed forward guidance
US unemployment falls toward Fed ‘threshold' of 6.5%, but few new jobs are added; confusing result raises questions for how - or whether - the Fed will proceed with its 'taper'
Israeli paper finds ‘prolonged decline’ in Nairu
Researchers at the Bank of Israel utilise the Phillips and Beveridge curves to estimate the country’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment between 1998 and 2012