Unemployment
Eurozone employment-to-GDP-growth ratio has recovered strongly – ECB
Employment growth concentrated in Spain and Germany; productivity remains “stagnant at pre-crisis levels”
RBA’s Kent considers life after the mining boom
Australian economy is well into an adjustment, following the country’s mining investment boom; RBA correctly identified the patterns of adjustment, but was surprised by the magnitude
Tightening policy during slowdown is not ideal, but necessary – Sarb governor
More fiscal or monetary stimulus will not generate growth in South Africa, says Kganyago, who instead stresses inflation outcomes need to be lowered
Canadian working paper examines effect of downward nominal wage rigidity on wage growth
Average wage growth higher due to DNWR after recession, authors note; signs of heterogeneity in DNWR effects
US inflation target within ‘hailing distance’, says Fischer
The Fed is “close” to its targets says vice-chair; despite recent weak GDP figures, Fischer expects investment to recover in coming months
Credit contractions are significant cause of unemployment, researcher says
Data from 20 OECD countries shows that contractions in credit affect total, youth and long-term unemployment measures, a working paper from the Bank of Austria argues
IMF’s Lipton argues for greater economic inclusion in South Africa
David Lipton urges reforms to remedy the fact that one-third of the working population is “effectively excluded” from the economy; suggests policies to build confidence and lift growth
US Phillips Curve “not broken” – IMF paper
Working paper finds economic behaviour since the crisis reflects different sources of disturbances, and not a change in the dynamics of the Phillips curve
Yellen says July hike ‘not impossible’ as Fed holds
Fed keeps policy unchanged as widely anticipated; expected path of interest rate hikes becomes more gradual while the long-run level is revised down again
IMF paper points to short-term benefits of product market reforms
Authors find product market reforms can deliver benefits in short term as well as long, though effects may be curtailed where credit is constrained
Yellen upbeat but concerned by weak jobs data
Janet Yellen expects continued progress to Fed’s objectives; says latest labour market report is “concerning” but warns against reading too much into it
US jobs report puts Fed hike expectations on ice
Small increase in non-farm payrolls leads market to all but write off prospect of a rate hike later this month; Lael Brainard and Eric Rosengren keen to see more data
ECB paper explores public and private employment link
Research contradicts literature that claims an increase in public employment crowds out private employment, at least in recessions
Fed's Rosengren warns against exceeding full employment
Boston Fed president says significantly overshooting full employment, which he estimates at 4.7%, could lead to an overheating economy and “rapid removal” of monetary policy accommodation
Philadelphia Fed president warns of ‘mismatch’ between education and business
Patrick Harker says there is a disparity between the education offered and practical skills needed by businesses in the US, which has likely contributed to slow recovery following crisis
Dudley flags inflation uncertainty and expectations concern
New York Fed president says uncertainties around his assessment of the inflation outlook have increased; warns of slide in household expectations and stresses need for ‘close scrutiny’
Carney says rate hold was ‘easy decision’ after 9-0 vote
‘Super’ Thursday becomes ‘subdued’ Thursday as BoE revises growth, inflation and unemployment forecasts down; policy on hold
Severely adverse scenario will now include ‘more severe downturn’ for US
Severely adverse scenario will now include ‘more severe downturn’ in the US economy; two new BHCs will take part, bringing total number to 33
Restructuring Norwegian economy will take time, Norges Bank says
The Norwegian economy is suffering amid further falls in oil prices, and rebalancing will take time, but central bank policy is doing its best to support the transition, report says
Yellen warns not to 'overblow' liftoff as Federal Reserve raises rates
Federal Open Market Committee will keep close eye on ‘actual and expected progress’ toward 2% inflation, after embarking on first tightening cycle since 2006 with 25bp hike
Paper uses Okun’s Law to assess Australian potential output
Discussion paper published by Reserve Bank of Australia estimates potential output growth has fallen from around 5% in the 1970s to 2.9% now
Haldane charts impact of automation on UK economy
Up to 15 million jobs could be at risk from automation in the UK alone, the BoE’s chief economist says, adding a rate rise is unnecessary at this juncture
Fed rate rise given the ‘amber light’
Federal Reserve holds rates but hints there could be action at the December meeting; analysts still seeing mixed signals
Cycles in Korean unemployment explained ‘mostly’ by domestic shocks, paper finds
Working paper estimates a new Keynesian model with labour market frictions, designed to mirror the Korean economy, to study relationship between different shocks and dynamics