Unemployment
Barbados government should cut staffing to reduce expenditure – Worrell
Government should aim to reduce its expenditure rather than raise taxes, says former central bank governor; departments should be reorganised to operate with fewer staff
Inflation data causes rift in FOMC
Fed officials discuss whether incoming low inflation data is “transitory” or is a sign of worrying things to come; minutes outline balance sheet unwinding but date remains unknown
Norges Bank study: regional network is supplying useful information
Central bank’s network of contacts is able to deliver better information on growth than other sources, report finds
BoE’s Haldane examines changing nature of work
Rise of “gig economy” and self-employment may have weakened wage-setting power among workers, the BoE chief economist says; he indicates a willingness to vote for a hike later this year
Norges Bank sees room for improvement when forecasting wages
Evaluation of forecast performance shows both the central bank and other forecasters struggled to produce accurate estimates of wage growth and unemployment
Brainard turns cautious on inflation concerns
Lack of wage growth and lower than expected inflation data could slow further monetary easing, says Fed governor; interest rates are likely to rise “soon”
Fed report finds many people left behind by growth
Survey finds nearly a quarter of Americans struggling to pay their bills; problems concentrated in less-educated segments of the population and minority groups
Adopting a dual mandate will not solve South African unemployment – Kganyago
Unemployment problems are caused by structural issues, Sarb governor says; scope for reducing unemployment through monetary policy is “smaller” than people imagine
Deterioration in labour market not yet hitting unemployment – Chile’s Marcel
Chilean governor says self-employment has acted as a “significant buffer” as employment declined; unemployment not yet being affected thanks to “flexibility” of market, governor says
‘Our independence is under threat’ – Yellen
Fed chair cites two legislative bills that could significantly harm the central bank’s ability to make independent monetary policy decisions; US economy is being allowed to “coast”
Mexico’s Carstens calls for continued trade cooperation with the US
Protectionist policies would be a step backward for both nations, Bank of Mexico governor suggests, saying continued cooperation will foster employment and investment
BoE’s Forbes dissents as inflation looms
MPC member votes for 25bp hike as inflation looks set to exceed target until “at least” 2020; other members sitting on the fence, for now
Policy intervention helps economies escape ‘stagnation traps’ – paper
Research published by ECB explains how “pessimistic expectations” can lead to low employment and growth, dampening investment; countercyclical subsidies could be the answer
Fed delivers 25bp hike
Fed makes rate hike that many FOMC members have been hinting at for weeks; committee gives bullish signals on the outlook
Fed could raise rates ‘fairly soon’ – minutes
Minutes show committee members will be watching labour and inflation data very closely; raising rates would offer “flexibility” in responding to economic changes
Uncertainty about momentum in the labour market – RBA minutes
“Mixed” picture in Australian labour market shows unemployment increasing alongside full-time employment; spare capacity likely to persist “for some time”
Fed’s Williams says labour market figures are accurate
Current unemployment rate “accurately” reflects the state of the labour market; San Francisco Fed researches a broader measure of the market
Only ‘gradual’ increases in interest rates on the cards at the Fed
FOMC members think only “gradual” adjustments to monetary policy are warranted; current pace will strengthen the labour market and see inflation rise
El Salvador governor highlights benefits of increasing minimum wage
New minimum wage legislation will improve the living standards of 19.9% of households, says El Salvador governor; raise will also have positive impact on total economic growth
Monitoring the labour market is key – BoE’s Saunders
Bank of England’s MPC member says unemployment should stay below the equilibrium 5% estimate in 2017 – but, should “warning signs appear”, changes to forecasts could be made
BoE paper drops rational expectations to solve unemployment puzzles
Replacing rational expectations with adaptive learning helps fit the standard theory of unemployment to the data, economists find
Pressure in the Danish labour market becoming ‘more evident’
All spare resources in the labour market have already been used, report says; employment has risen by 105,000 people from Q4 2012 to Q2 2016
BoE’s new MPC member suggests tweaks to policy approach
Michael Saunders says models that assume pre-crisis level for equilibrium unemployment may be misleading; new FPC member grilled on other commitments in the US
Benefits to inflation overshooting target – Chicago Fed president
Policy-makers “willing to accept” inflationary risk that comes with falling unemployment if Fed overshoots target, Evans says