Unemployment
Minneapolis Fed president open to cutting rates
Narayana Kocherlakota stresses room for improvement in US labour market, noting low inflation could give the Fed space to pursue more accommodative policy
Fed policy has ‘little impact’ on labour market, paper says
Paper published by Minneapolis Fed argues there is little the Fed can do to restore the level of employment relative to the population that prevailed before the crisis
Micro-data matters for unemployment, says BoE’s Broadbent
Deputy governor becomes latest economist to stress importance of micro data for macro policy, warning overreliance on ‘simple aggregates’ may lead central bankers astray
Bank of England wary of China risks but UK outlook steady
The MPC’s view is not materially affected by recent volatility in the financial markets as it keeps policy on hold; domestically, an increase in wage growth is offset by higher productivity
US unemployment falls to 5.1% despite drop in jobs growth
Richmond Fed president describes it as a ‘right-down-the-middle-of-the-fairway’ unemployment report, as he spells out why the time is right to begin raising interest rates
Research maps Norwegian challenges if oil prices stay low
Economic commentary considers how the increase in oil prices over the past decade has affected Norway in a bid to understand how the recent price drop could play out
Fischer upbeat on US inflation outlook at Jackson Hole
Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer says there is ‘good reason’ to believe inflation will move higher as impact of rise in dollar and fall in oil prices dissipates
Lockhart still expects rate hike this year
Atlanta Fed president still expects Fed to start tightening ‘sometime’ this year but market expectations of a September hike have fallen
Lockhart says Fed liftoff is ‘close’
Atlanta Fed president highlights ‘cumulative evidence’ of economic recovery and says he is willing to sanction the first rate increase in the face of ‘mixed data’
US rate hike still a possibility after ‘solid’ jobs data
Federal Reserve still on track to hike rates later this year, possibly as soon as September, after latest jobs data shows 215,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls
Italian paper explores wage and unemployment relationship
Occasional paper stresses the choice of measures for the change in wage rates has ‘important consequences for the results’
Yellen bats away calls for simple rules-based policy
Fed chair tells Committee on Financial Services a monetary policy rule based on two economic variables is inappropriate as ‘the world is more complicated than that’
Yellen expects 'lift-off' later this year
Janet Yellen expects the Fed to raise the federal funds rate "at some point" in 2015 with full employment "coming closer into view" and inflation on track to return to 2% in the next few years
Research calls on Fed to replace ‘dot plot’
Working paper published by the IMF suggests publishing a baseline forecast compiled by staff and 'endorsed' by the FOMC as a replacement for individual and anonymous projections
Fed officials still back 2015 rate hike
Median of latest projections suggests federal funds rate will reach 0.625% by the end of the year; FOMC delivers more upbeat assessment as its keeps policy unchanged
Cleveland Fed economists cautious over use of Taylor rule
Research emphasises the difficulty in measuring potential output and the natural rate of unemployment accurately and urges policy-makers to ‘take care’ when using the rule
Fed’s Brainard sees scope for ‘watchful waiting’
Governor says there may be room to ‘support further healing’ in the labour market before raising interest rates, but notes first hike could still come this year
Kocherlakota sets out path back to maximum employment
Minneapolis Fed president says the FOMC should set policy in a way that allows for at least three more years ‘as good as 2014’ if the labour market is to achieve highs last seen in 2006
Kuroda sees little difference between major central banks
Despite the different wording of the major central bank mandates there is ‘little practical difference’ between them, BoJ governor says
Minneapolis Fed essay suggests new focus for FOMC comms
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl argues the FOMC should talk more about what it is trying to accomplish with its monetary policy; Minneapolis Fed staff rewrite January statement to illustrate point
Household expectations help flesh out inflation picture, research finds
Research published in the latest Bank of Canada review argues that looking at the behaviour of expectations since the crisis helps in understanding evolution of inflation
San Fran Fed president sees light at end of tunnel
John Williams says when short-term volatility is discounted, the US economy is nearing full employment, with an inflation trend running around 1.5%
Chicago Fed research charts fall in natural rate of unemployment
Group of economists say an ageing population and rising education attainment could push the natural rate – currently at or below 5% – as low as 4.5% by 2020
Jobs data recovers in the US as Dudley looks to help small businesses thrive
Non-farm payroll employment increases by 223,000 in April after a difficult March; NY Fed president considers how small businesses can access credit and expand