Macroeconomics
Biden stimulus will cause small, short price spike, says paper
San Francisco Fed predicts American Rescue Plan will boost inflation by 0.3%
Forecaster surveys improve eurozone inflation modelling – ECB paper
Households’ and firms’ expectations do not provide useful data on inflation
Delta variant had smaller impact on US consumer spending
Cleveland Fed finds weaker or no link between hospitalisation and spending in 2021
ECB paper examines ‘euroised’ economies
European countries’ informal adoption of euro places limits on central banks, says working paper
Fed’s Bullard believes a ‘five-year window’ for AIT is ‘realistic’
Too much precision can “get you into trouble”, says St Louis Fed chief
Permanent or transitory? Officials wrestle with inflation uncertainty
Bailey warns of possible damage to credibility, but Carstens urges caution amid high uncertainty
James Bullard on Fed policy, action and governance
St Louis president calls for tapering, quantifies AIT and details Congress’s role in Fed ethics
IMF: growth prospects dim as pandemic lingers
Fund revises down growth forecasts, warning of inflation, disruption and divergence
Empirical economists win Nobel Prize
Card, Angrist and Imbens share prize for work on labour markets and causality
BIS paper outlines model of managed floats
Framework captures financial frictions while being simpler than other models, authors say
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees
Inequality sharpens monetary policy’s effects – ECB paper
Author analyses “inequality channel” using model with three types of heterogeneous agent
BDF paper analyses banks’ capital buffers
Researchers suggest new approach to setting banks’ structural and cyclical reserve levels
Bolivian ex-governor warns pension law poses bank risk
Current governor has stayed silent on risks posed by measure, former governor Morales says
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”
Chilean governor opposes new pension withdrawals
Congress considering authorising fourth drawdown as stimulus measure
Jackson Hole conference switches to online-only model
Kansas City Fed cancels Wyoming get-together, citing Delta variant
Fed may taper asset purchases this year, say FOMC minutes
Federal Reserve staff warn US financial system has “notable” vulnerabilities
Link between US labour costs and inflation has weakened – ECB paper
US can sustain robust labour markets without risking inflation outbreak, researchers say
Macro-pru can help avoid ‘reversal interest rate’ – Bundesbank paper
Use of capital ratios can aid eurozone monetary policy, researchers say
Macro-pru mortgage limits were successful – RBA research
Central bank rates performance of policies implemented to cool risks in the housing market
Paper analyses eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations
Short-term views, trust and Covid-19 shaped medium-term expectations – Bank of Finland paper
BdF paper analyses inflation tolerance ranges
Ranges “should not be zones of inaction” and may have unfavourable trade-offs, researchers say
Vast majority of central banks provide communications training
Social media, writing skills and public speaking emerged as key areas