Macroeconomics
Macro-pru can help avoid ‘reversal interest rate’ – Bundesbank paper
Use of capital ratios can aid eurozone monetary policy, researchers say
Macro-pru mortgage limits were successful – RBA research
Central bank rates performance of policies implemented to cool risks in the housing market
Paper analyses eurozone consumers’ inflation expectations
Short-term views, trust and Covid-19 shaped medium-term expectations – Bank of Finland paper
BdF paper analyses inflation tolerance ranges
Ranges “should not be zones of inaction” and may have unfavourable trade-offs, researchers say
Vast majority of central banks provide communications training
Social media, writing skills and public speaking emerged as key areas
Bank of Italy paper uses agent-based model of housing market
Limits on borrowing are effective but not currently needed for Italian housing sector
Shadow banking changes macro-prudential trade-offs – BdF paper
Presence of non-banks increases importance of dynamic capital ratios, researcher argues
Central banks will need new tools if low rates persist – Rogoff
Governments must clamp down on crypto assets while central banks develop CBDCs, economist says
US CPI inflation reaches 5%
Figures follow predictions of “transitory” inflation rises by senior Fed officials
Economists win prize for agent-based forecast model
Authors say theirs is the first agent-based model to produce competitive economic forecasts
The Belt and Road Initiative 2021 Survey – The impact of Covid‑19 on the BRI
The fourth annual Belt and Road Initiative survey reveals that the Covid‑19 pandemic has disrupted many projects despite China remaining committed to financing the initiative, which is expected to support future economic growth and environmental…
Time series models need adapting for Covid-19 shock – ECB paper
Authors explain methods for making Phillips curves and VAR models more robust
Reserve management in China: foreign reserves, renminbi internationalisation and beyond
Hui Feng explores how China has managed its foreign reserves over the past decade
Policymakers should consider adjusting ECB’s target – BdF paper
Lower eurozone r* points to adjustment of monetary policy strategy, researchers find
Fed’s Harker warns US higher education ‘is in peril’
Philadelphia Fed president calls for reforms, as colleges face up to $115 billion in deficits
Fed’s Bostic says economic inclusion goals shape policy
Atlanta Fed president calls for more joint work with CFPB
The evolving ‘strategy function’ in central banks
Study shows central banks still struggle to fully utilise strategy units
Foreign banks can reduce harm of ‘doom loop’ – ECB paper
Cross-border banks in eurozone countries soften effects of sovereign stress on credit
SF Fed president says inequality could have cost US $2.6 trillion in 2019
Research paper argues opportunity and pay could increase labour output 40% by 2029
IMF adjusts growth forecasts upward
Fund warns of uneven and unequal recovery, but is more optimistic than it was in October
A latent rise in r* could upend monetary policy
A rising natural rate could create serious challenges for policy-makers, write Jorma Schäublin and Philip Turner
Barkin concerned over pandemic ‘scarring’
Richmond Fed chief says disruptions imperil access to jobs and economic growth
Economics in central banking: ‘Patterns in invoicing currency in global trade’, Emine Boz, Camila Casas, Georgios Georgiadis, Gita Gopinath, Helena Le Mezo, Arnaud Mehl and Tra Nguyen
An extensive data-gathering exercise allowed the authors to shed new light on critical aspects of policy-making in a globalised world
Fed paper finds ways to boost forecast performance
Adding extra information can help make forecasts more accurate and robust, authors say