Macroeconomics
Chile’s Costa on tackling inflation, forex interventions and nowcasting
Chilean governor discusses stubbornly high prices, Fed spillovers, reserve buffers, retail CBDC and unconscious bias
ECB paper presents new corporate default prediction method
Authors say their “distance to insolvency” measure outperforms other forecasting methods
Carstens wins major Spanish economics prize
King of Spain award praises BIS president’s work in Mexico and globally
Argentine central bank debt poses major risks, analyst says
Moody’s analyst says central bank faces macroeconomic crisis as short-term debt rises
Climate change may have serious effects on natural rate – ECB paper
Monetary policy may need more flexibility to deal with climate and green transition, researchers say
ERM’s 1992 crisis offers lessons for today, academics say
Barry Eichengreen, Maurice Obstfeld and Richard Portes discussed “accident waiting to happen”
Nominal interest rates strongly affect savings – ECB paper
Simple models based on real rates do not accord with eurozone data, researchers find
Expectations are key to carbon tax’s impact, says ECB paper
Inflation may rise if consumers doubt government’s commitment to raise green taxes, research finds
US needs tighter policy, former senior Fed adviser says
Higher rates will cause little damage to supply chains, David Wilcox argues
IMF paper offers ‘fear-based theory’ of economy
Central banks risk distorting the economy if they don’t move interest rates to offset “fear cycle”
Joseph Stiglitz on the challenge of fixing macroeconomics
Nobel Prize-winner discusses if central banks went wrong in 2021 and what to do about inflation
Eurozone repo markets are slowing policy transmission, ECB paper says
Dealer banks use market power to get better prices from other institutions
ECB’s Lane and Schnabel strike different notes on eurozone inflation
Schnabel says “right tail” shift could herald de-anchoring, but Lane says other outcomes are possible
Joseph Stiglitz calls for rethink of macroeconomics
DGSE models have “nothing to say” about economic effects of Covid-19 measures, Nobel winner says
Decision theory can guide climate modelling, Nobel laureate says
Lars Peter Hansen argues policy-makers need to pay more attention to uncertainty
El Salvador abolishes statistics agency
Central bank will absorb body that calculates inflation
People: World Bank appoints Gill as chief economist
Two members join Bank of Japan board, and senior IMF officials Lester and Rice step down
Brazil central bank union ends strike
Months of industrial action fail to secure requested pay increase
Banking systems’ long-term systemic risk has grown – ECB paper
Assets became safer but banking systems’ failures were more harmful, analysis finds
ECB paper argues for existence of ‘liquidity coverage channel’
Researchers analyse impact of eurozone central banks’ actions after onset of Covid-19 pandemic
Three QE controversies, two theories
BNP Paribas Asset Management‘s head of macro research, Richard Barwell, explores three controversies surrounding quantitative easing through the lens of the quantities and signals theories, and considers whether all asset purchase programmes should be…
ECB paper analyses financial crisis contagion
Crisis in one region can trigger more as investors reassess other markets, researchers say
Eurozone could improve fiscal pact – ECB paper
Reformed framework should combine expenditure growth rule with “debt anchor”, researchers say
Sudden carbon price rise risks major financial shocks – ECB paper
Model looks at impact on eurozone banks of different decarbonisation measures