Macroeconomics
ECB paper examines exchange rates and household consumption
Exchange rate elasticity of household consumption driven largely by industrial goods - researchers
BIS statistics: OTC derivatives market value back to 2019 levels
Gross market values have fallen about a fifth since second half of 2020
‘Bullwhip effects’ worsening supply problems – BIS bulletin
Direct inflationary impact likely to be limited, but “sustained pressures” are possible, economists say
New York Fed opens new research centre
Marco Del Negro will lead work on research methods and issues in macroeconomics
GDP-linked bonds unlikely to ‘tame debt’ – BdF paper
Linking sovereign bonds to GDP would not necessarily improve debt ratios, researchers find
Asset sell-off biggest threat to Chile’s financial stability – Marcel
Governor reiterates warning against further pension withdrawals
NGFS’s climate stress tests bolstered by new macroeconomic modelling
NiGem model will help central banks better understand economic transmission channels
Biden stimulus will cause small, short price spike, says paper
San Francisco Fed predicts American Rescue Plan will boost inflation by 0.3%
Forecaster surveys improve eurozone inflation modelling – ECB paper
Households’ and firms’ expectations do not provide useful data on inflation
Delta variant had smaller impact on US consumer spending
Cleveland Fed finds weaker or no link between hospitalisation and spending in 2021
ECB paper examines ‘euroised’ economies
European countries’ informal adoption of euro places limits on central banks, says working paper
Fed’s Bullard believes a ‘five-year window’ for AIT is ‘realistic’
St Louis Fed president says “big tent language” was a reason overshoot details were not specified; “precise numerical implementations” can “get you into trouble”
Permanent or transitory? Officials wrestle with inflation uncertainty
Bailey warns of possible damage to credibility, but Carstens urges caution amid high uncertainty
James Bullard on Fed policy, action and governance
St Louis president calls for tapering amid “exceptional” job market and risk of “more persistent” inflation, quantifies ‘big tent language’ for pioneering AIT move, and details Congress’s role in Fed ethics oversight
IMF: growth prospects dim as pandemic lingers
Fund revises down growth forecasts, warning of inflation, disruption and divergence
Empirical economists win Nobel Prize
Card, Angrist and Imbens share prize for work on labour markets and causality
BIS paper outlines model of managed floats
Framework captures financial frictions while being simpler than other models, authors say
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees
Inequality sharpens monetary policy’s effects – ECB paper
Author analyses “inequality channel” using model with three types of heterogeneous agent
BDF paper analyses banks’ capital buffers
Researchers suggest new approach to setting banks’ structural and cyclical reserve levels
Bolivian ex-governor warns pension law poses bank risk
Current governor has stayed silent on risks posed by measure, former governor Morales says
Powell says taper test has been met ‘with regard to inflation’
Fed chair tells Jackson Hole conference that slowing QE this year “could be appropriate”
Chilean governor opposes new pension withdrawals
Congress considering authorising fourth drawdown as stimulus measure
Jackson Hole conference switches to online-only model
Kansas City Fed cancels Wyoming get-together, citing Delta variant