Macroeconomics
Researchers build ‘most comprehensive’ global macro database
Long-term data reveals financial crises can harm growth for half a century
New Zealand makes rate cut in response to tariffs
RBNZ eases policy by 25bp and points to trade war’s downside risks to growth
Nabiullina: still Putin’s most effective general
Even Russia’s enemies say its central bank governor has played a bad hand well. But for how much longer?
Agent-based models come of age
Central banks are increasingly modelling the economy as a complex system
BoE museum showcases virtual reality Phillips machine
VR version of Moniac brings 144kg hydraulic economic model to wider audience
Do central bank governors make good prime ministers?
Mark Carney is the latest to make the leap, but the record elsewhere has been mixed
‘No strategy’ in US tariffs, says Mexican economist
Measures ignore “triangular” trade relationship between US, China and Mexico
US house price-to-rent ratio likely to fall – Dallas Fed study
Expected decline could also signal future course of inflation, research argues
High temperatures slow down economic growth – Banxico paper
Authors say Mexico is warming faster than other countries
Large geopolitical shocks have outsized economic impact – paper
Researchers find non-linearities, which amplify effects on economy
People willing to pay more to curb business cycle – study
Survey data challenges assertion that consumers would only make minimal sacrifices
Fed governors differ on best way to deal with Trump uncertainty
Waller says monetary policy can’t be “put on hold”, but Bowman calls for wait-and-see approach
Eurozone ‘not in a recession at all’ – Cipollone
ECB vice-president says there is “room to cut”, digital euro work continues and bitcoin is not gold
BoJ raises policy rate to highest level since 2008
Policy-makers raise inflation forecasts and signal further rate rises
Inflation uncertainty spills over into US – Fed study
Lack of clarity over input costs and interest rates leads to lower levels of investment, study finds
PBoC holds key lending rates
Move comes after China hit 5% growth target for 2024, but analysts expect further easing this year
NBER paper explores sources of ‘geoeconomic power’
Authors write of “urgent need” to understand “new era of geoeconomic rivalry”
Fed’s anecdotal survey correlates with economic data – research
Study says Beige Book’s “soft” data is “actually quite firm”
PBoC suspends government bond purchases
China's central bank moves after “persistent excess demand” causes yields to hit record lows
PBoC to issue record amount of bills in Hong Kong
Central bank to auction 60 billion yuan of bills in territory amid weakening renminbi
Bigger cities do not mean much greater growth – study
Benefits of agglomeration are “surprisingly little”, NBER paper argues
Higher tariffs would hurt US allies as well as its foes – research
However, research says country would be largely shielded from impact of geopolitical fragmentation
PBoC vows to cut reserve requirements and interest rates
Officials pledge to keep monetary policy “moderately loose” and support capital markets
China holds benchmark lending rates
One- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged after authorities pledge to loosen policy next year