Labour market
Goodhart and Pradhan on the end of monetary independence
The unanchored central banker authors speak about how ageing populations, soaring healthcare costs and rising fiscal deficits will force central bankers to compromise on inflation targets and bail out indebted governments
The Fed enters a new epoch
Chair Kevin Warsh takes his first steps to transform the US central bank
Waller steps up to the plate with rationale for rate setting
Fed governor compares himself to baseball umpire and says data will determine his next FOMC vote
Bank of Canada extends rate hold as trade war intensifies
Macklem says surprise uptick in growth is fragile thanks to new US tariffs and high petrol prices
Warsh declines to outline Fed’s reaction function
Chair tells Jackson Hole that ‘humble, never naïve’ approach will work and assesses US economy
Warsh called for fewer FOMC meetings in July
Minutes show committee agreeing on above-target inflation but disagreeing over AI’s effect on prices
Sticky wages help explain depressed US sentiment – paper
Lack of salary indexation, rather than inflation, to blame for decline in sentiment, authors find
Fresh graduates’ job market perception worsened by 23% in 2025 – ECB
Research points to slowing growth in knowledge-intensive services to explain otherwise ‘cyclical’ effect
Bank of England keeps rates at 3.75%
Split 6–3 decision points to divisions over inflation outlook amid escalation of Iran war
Shocks greater when inflation already high – BoE study
Bank publishes latest response to Bernanke review of UK monetary policy-making
Unclear whether AI will reduce or heighten inequality – Barr
Fed governor’s caution contrasts with Warsh’s more bullish stance
Lagarde ‘regrets’ forward guidance and Warsh plans ‘family fight’
Fed, ECB, BoC and BoE heads discuss inflation, uncertainty, AI, stagflation and independence in Sintra
Colombia resumes rate hikes in first post-election decision
Analyst says 75bp hike may be attempt by Banrep to compensate for April’s ‘compromise hold’
Switzerland and Norway hold, Czech Republic and Moldova hike
SNB says inflation uptick is temporary, while CNB and Norges Bank highlight wage pressures
BoE holds interest rates at 3.75%
Governor says he would respond ‘promptly’ to stronger second-round effects of Iran war
ECB hikes by 25bp as eurozone inflation takes off
Staff projections foresee higher price growth followed by downward revision over coming two years
‘Dark corners’ authors on setting policy under intense uncertainty
Douglas Laxton and Shalva Mkhatrishvili say policy-making should work to avoid the worst outcomes
Iceland hikes by 25bp, citing rising expectations
Economic outlook deteriorates as energy prices rise and domestic wage pressures persist
Lane and Waller: research mix is extremely valuable
Central banks’ short- and long-term studies both benefit policy-making, Fed and ECB officials say
Fed’s Paulson says current interest rate level ‘appropriate’
High inflation accompanied by widespread pessimism in US labour market, FOMC member notes
Norway and Moldova are first in Europe to hike rates on Iran war
Norges Bank cites broad inflation concerns, but Moldova points to conflict-induced energy spike