Labour market
Powell says he expects March rate hike
Fed chair says FOMC is discussing agreement on shrinking balance sheet
BIS paper estimates slack in Mexico’s informal labour market
Calculating Nairu is challenging given large unregulated sector, authors say
Wage pressure was ‘big call’ in BoE forecasts, says Pill
Chief economist says easing of wage pressure will be critical if UK is to avoid recession
BoE hikes main rate and begins shrinking balance sheet
UK Treasury unveils parallel measures to cushion impact of surging energy prices
BIS’s Borio: inflation not yet ‘endemic’ but could become so
There is not yet a deeper shift in the “inflation regime” but it remains a long-term risk, BIS official says
Fed signals time will be right for rate hike ‘soon’
QE set to end in March, with balance sheet to start shrinking after rates rise
Labour market news matters for business cycle – BoE paper
Findings suggest previous focus on productivity is too narrow
Bank of England raises policy rate
Tightening comes amid inflation surge and just after BoE completes asset purchases
Fed doubles pace of quantitative easing taper
FOMC says recent inflation figures and labour market strength drove the decision
Bank of Canada renews monetary policy framework
Central bank conducts first “systematic” study of other frameworks since it adopted inflation targeting
Masaaki Shirakawa on lessons from crisis and how to reform central banks
The former governor reflects on a turbulent 40 years at the Bank of Japan, and considers how central banks might face up to the challenges of the future
Labour market changes key to inflation – BIS’s Shin
Central banks may face “race against time” to prevent wage-price spiral, says Hyun Song Shin
Alternative data fuels central bank research
Important research areas include monetary transmission, exchange rates, digitisation, SMEs and climate change, against the backdrop of Covid
Pandemic spurred use of alternative data
Advanced and emerging market economies prioritise different applications
Low unemployment rate will be learning experience for RBA – Lowe
Central bank maintains it will not raise rates until 2024, unless forecasts turn out “very differently”
Furlough uncertainty delayed BoE rate hike – Bailey
Roughly a million people were still using the job protection scheme when it ended, governor says
BoE surprises with rate hold as inflation forecasts reach 5%
Market-implied path for interest rates rises to 1% by end-2022
Unemployment falls across North America
US recovery is weaker than expected, while Canada reaches pre-pandemic jobs levels
Empirical economists win Nobel Prize
Card, Angrist and Imbens share prize for work on labour markets and causality
Larry Summers on stagflation risks, lessons from Delphi and never-ending ‘punch’
The former US Treasury secretary speaks about fiscal ‘overexpansion’, Fed/Treasury debt discord, the pitfalls of ‘unknown unknowns’ and central bankers ‘unable’ to remove the ‘punchbowl’
Goodhart, Gopinath and Lippi disagree on inflation
Central banks lack tools to deal with inflation, Goodhart warns, but IMF chief economist disagrees
BoE paper links debt and labour supply
Households behave differently depending on their wealth and debt, paper finds
Bailey puzzles over UK labour market signals
A lot of people are still out of the labour market, but unemployment remains low
BoE cuts UK growth forecast
Inflation likely to stay above 4% for first half of 2022 amid supply constraints and energy squeeze – MPC