Inflation
Sri Lankan central bank reveals inflation spike in 2012
Sri Lankan annual report says economic growth, while still strong, fell in 2012 while inflation rose sharply; central bank increased reserves by 15%
Accumulating reserves to guard against inflation is 'misplaced'
Researchers at Bofit institute find that using reserves as a ‘bulwark against goods price inflation' is a mistake; say best protection against costly reserves accumulation is flexible exchange rate
Chilean paper finds central bank’s forecasts influence private sector expectations
Working paper finds evidence the private sector updates inflation expectations based on the Central Bank of Chile’s forecasts; suggests more central banks should publish forecasts to aid policy
Israel annual report sees growth and inflation fall
Growth rate declines by 1.5% in 2012 but unemployment remains stable; inflation falls below target as schooling and mobile phone prices fall
Bundesbank research finds strong role for China in global inflation dynamics
Discussion paper weighs cross-border effects of supply and demand shocks in China; results suggest Chinese shocks explain an average of 5% of total inflation across countries
Bundesbank researchers test if higher inflation could ease public debt burden
Paper finds 'minor effect' on public debt from a raised inflation target, and would only be felt over a long time-frame
Kuroda uncompromising on deflation
New Bank of Japan governor says the central bank will need to expand its asset purchase programme and firmly communicate its commitment to raising inflation
Icelandic finance minister backs euro switch
Katrín Júlíusdóttir says adopting euro could help to restrain inflation and boost investment; Central Bank of Iceland publishes annual report
CNB research finds exchange rate moves dampen shocks
Working paper finds exchange rate shocks are only minor contributors to the variance of output and inflation; says koruna-euro exchange rate is a shock absorber for the economy
RBA deputy governor says record low rates are beginning to work
Philip Lowe defends six rate cuts since November 2011, saying there are signs the Australian economy is beginning to respond to the stimulus; urges patience while effects feed through
Korean paper says welfare cost of inflation is ‘underestimated’
Study contends that treating assets within M1 – the measure of cash and liquid assets in the economy – as non-interest-bearing in models fails to take into account full cost of inflation
BoE chief economist warns against inflation complacency
Bank of England’s Spencer Dale says he is concerned by ‘dangerous talk’ suggesting MPC should focus more on growth
Shirakawa examines ways for Japan to hit 2% inflation target
Bank of Japan governor says inflation will only be beneficial if it is driven by the right factors; says improved expectations are key to restoring Japan’s growth potential
BoJ changes represent the death knell for central bank independence
The growing policy crisis caused by central banks taking on roles beyond price stability and lender of last resort is not down to 'independence' – as the BoJ case points out
RBI governor defends 3% inflation target
Duvvuri Subbarao says India’s high inflation in recent years does not represent a ‘new normal’; rejects upping the central bank’s 3% target
National Bank of Poland says rate cuts will bring inflation up to target
Polish inflation projected to fall to 1.3% in 2013 before rising to 2.6% in 2014, after benchmark rate slashed by 150 basis points in five months
Riksbank report deflects criticism over persistent below-target inflation
Economic commentary says low inflation is partly caused by factors outside the Riksbank’s control; argues tight policy cannot take all the blame for high unemployment
Bank of Japan paper shows popping bubbles may require volatile inflation
Research finds inflation can remain stable while asset price bubbles develop, implying optimal monetary policy should tighten to reduce the bubble at the cost of below-target inflation
Cleveland paper trumpets value of median CPI in forecasting
Research says median CPI – a ‘trimmed’ measure of inflation – can improve the accuracy of forecasts involving a range of macroeconomic variables
BoJ survey shows households expect tough times to continue
Households see economic conditions as worse than a quarter ago and likely to stay the same, although the majority thinks prices will rise in the coming years
BoE MPC member makes case for more stimulus
David Miles presents model that suggests monetary policy is probably still too tight in the UK; says more QE would be one way to address this, but other easing strategies could also work
Bank of Finland paper urges QE use outside crises
Analysis based on DSGE model finds asset purchases are a useful monetary policy tool in all states of the economy, but should be co-ordinated with conventional interest rate policy
RBA minutes warn growth may wobble in 2013
Minutes suggest economy is struggling to rebalance away from mining as peak in resource investment approaches, but low inflation gives room for further rate cuts
BoE’s Weale warns of burgeoning inflation risk due to weak pound
Monetary Policy Committee member says further depreciation of the pound could push inflation further from its target, but the Bank of England might just have to weather the storm