Inflation
Serbian director hints at possible easing in coming months
Head of National Bank of Serbia’s research department sees inflationary pressure easing and the Serbian economy returning to growth; says this may prompt cuts in the near future
Fed paper examines costs of trend inflation variance
Study finds an increase in the volatility of trend inflation imposes a modest welfare cost on the economy
King insists economy must rebalance
Governor says Bank of England can still contribute to recovery but is running up an ‘ever steeper hill’; inflation report downbeat on growth and inflation prospects
Colombian paper finds flaws in inflation forecasting
Research by the Central Bank of Colombia says many central banks have scope to improve the accuracy of their inflation forecasts
BoJ board member says 2% target is not sustainable
Takehiro Sato explains his vote against Bank of Japan’s inflation target change, and says central bank will not intervene to depress the value of the yen – but the government might
Robert Pringle’s Viewpoint: Assessing Masaaki Shirakawa’s legacy
The policies of outgoing Bank of Japan governor, Masaaki Shirakawa, have brought economic stability to Japan and are likely to be viewed favourably by future generations
RBA holds rates but suggests cuts could follow
Reserve Bank of Australia holds interest rate at 3%; governor says stable inflation would allow board to make cuts and boost demand if needed
Chilean board members wary of low inflation
Chilean wage growth is outstripping inflation; board members show concern but hold rates
BoJ target leaves Japan inflation swap market unmoved
Doubling Japan's inflation target has had a limited impact on the domestic inflation market
Inflation unexpectedly plummets in Turkey
Year-on-year inflation falls from 9.2% to 6.2% between September and December last year; central bank ready to tighten rates if inflationary pressures are restored
Malawi at risk in wake of currency devaluation
Financial stability report reveals inflation doubled after Malawian government floated exchange rate and devalued currency by 50%
Inflation uncertainty a ‘substantial’ threat to economic growth, says Polish paper
Research finds high inflation uncertainty can restrain GDP growth; warns the euro area will suffer if expectations are not managed
Majority support an inflation target, poll finds
Almost two-thirds of participants in poll say inflation-targeting central banks should stick with current policy; Mark Carney lauds the unconventional measures a flexible framework allows
New studies tackle diverse inflation outcomes in eastern Europe
Papers by the IMF and National Bank of Slovakia assess factors behind incomplete interest rate pass through and divergent drivers of inflation in eastern Europe
Latvia’s Rimsevics predicts solid year for the economy
Governor of the Bank of Latvia expects inflation to remain moderate and growth, while slower than 2012, to show one of the fastest rates in the European Union
Carney insists Bank of Canada will tighten policy despite holding rates again
Mark Carney says the withdrawal of monetary stimulus is postponed, but not cancelled, as Bank of Canada’s governing council holds rates again
Draghi optimistic as ‘darkest clouds’ in euro area subside
ECB president Mario Draghi praises the euro area’s achievements in 2012, and urges countries to be unrelenting in their pursuit of reform
Gold is no inflation hedge, says RBI deputy
Kamalesh Chandra Chakrabarty disputes status of gold as a safe asset or hedge against inflation, arguing that as the gold price increases, so do risks
RBI’s Subbarao justifies greater central bank focus on poverty
Duvvuri Subbarao explains why a move towards greater emphasis on identifying and measuring poverty is important for the Reserve Bank
Sri Lankan central bank sounds positive note for 2013
Monetary policy review forecasts moderation in inflation and robust economic growth; committee votes to hold repo rate at 7.5% and reverse repo at 9.5%
Bank of Israel paper advocates inflation sacrifice when wages are rigid
Research says controlling inflation requires a greater sacrifice of economic output and employment when there are frictions in the labour market
Bank of Canada front-runner discusses interest rate rise
Tiff Macklem, tipped to be the next Canadian governor, reveals concern over household imbalances despite ‘signs of stabilisation’ and points to potential interest rate rise
Bank of Korea foresees long road to recovery
Economic outlook report predicts sluggish narrowing of Korea’s negative output gap; central bank keeps rates on hold
Brazilian governor expects inflation drop
Alexandre Tombini says inflation spiked in last six months because of agricultural shocks, but it will resume a downward trend in 2013