Fed paper trials new model for estimating trend inflation

federal reserve

A Federal Reserve working paper, released last week, proposes a multivariate model for measuring trend inflation in advanced countries that produces "much lower" estimates than other researchers' efforts.

In Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies, Christine Garnier, Elmar Mertens and Edward Nelson say estimates of trend inflation can serve as a "useful centering point" for the construction of inflation forecasts.

The authors construct their own model of trend inflation in advanced economies and

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